By Pepper Parr
January 13th, 2021
BURLINGTON, ON
The data in a visual format tells the story.
Stark evidence of what we have done to ourselves.
What happened to those in Long Term Care (LTC) facilities.
Key Findings•Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.•Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.•COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.
Daily mortality is increasing under current restrictions, doubling from 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and end of February.
Projections: COVID-19 ICU occupancy around 500 beds in mid-January, potentially over 1,000 beds in February in more severe, but realistic scenarios. Graph below.
There is now no question that the Premier has become overwhelmed and his government has no plan other than making it up day by day. He is over his head as a leader. He and his Cabinet are also adrift, asking for advice from experts, thanking them, and then retiring to massage it through the political sausage machine, considering carefully from the standpoint of who might be annoyed (i.e. donors), what blowback might occur (next election coming up), what other cabinet members and MPPs might be concerned about (insert favorite local pressure point) and also getting on with our mission (defund education, defang conservation, kill carbon tax, granting favours to our friends, etc.). Since this takes days to process, the communication plan is to announce notice of a crisis on Thursday, announce the plan to deal with it on the next Tuesday, with action to take effect next Thursday. Wars have been lost in less time. Again, more waffling and fumbling so soon after the wait-until-boxing-day travesty.