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A minority government for Doug Ford might just be the outcome - we will know in a month
January 27th, 2025 BURLINGTON, ON This story has been updated. A public opinion poll is a snapshot taken at a specific point in time. The data that Mainstreet Research published today is just that – interesting. They were predicting a 79-seat majority Government.
 6 comments to A minority government for Doug Ford might just be the outcome – we will know in a monthLeave a Reply |
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There are two challenges facing the PCs this election. The first is getting their base out to vote. So many former supporters I’ve spoken with are unenthusiastic about Ford’s leadership, and deeply disappointed with the state of this province. All key performance metrics across health care, education and the economy indicate both structural weaknesses and a lack of critical funding and innovation. This PC government compares unfavourably with that of Bill Davis, John Robarts, Leslie Frost or George Drew who were leaders with vision and inspiration.
The second hard reality is that there are huge swaths of this province that won’t be voting PC anytime soon. They aren’t going to win the majority of seats in Toronto. They aren’t going to make gains in Hamilton. They aren’t going to take Ottawa, or Windsor, or London, or Kitchener or Guelph. They’ll win a few in the GTA, and in the rural ridings. However, many sitting Opposition members of all three parties are stellar individuals who have done a superb job representing their constituents and serving as vocal advocates. I would trade our MPP for a Wayne Gates in Niagara Falls, a Catherine Fife in Kitchener, a Jennie Stevens in St. Catharines, a Mike Schreiner in Guelph, or a John Fraser In Ottawa, anytime.
Penny asks the question “Who would you vote for”? The most pragmatic response for those wanting to change is “vote strategically”. Support the candidate who has the best chance of defeating the PC candidate or incumbent. Reducing the provincial Tories to a minority status provides the impetus for the Liberals, NDP and Greens to get together and form a coalition government as in 1985. It will force the provincial Tories to confront the hard reality that Doug Ford is a train wreck who should be permanently sidelined. The provincial Tories need to clean house and get rid of the rot, and the poor beleaguered voters in Ontario shouldn’t have to wait for the results of an RCMP investigation to do it for us.
Tom, I am not disagreeing with your assessment of Doug Ford. In your comment you explained why you would never vote for Doug Ford.
Can I ask who you would vote for and why?
There’s my favourite word again, ‘Why’, maybe it’s because I’ve never grown up or maybe it’s because I’ve never been afraid to use it. Doug Ford did and is still P…… me off, and In my mind, I’ve slapped a big sticker across his gob ‘CINO’ There is nothing remotely Conservative about him, and I am now in the unfortunate position of having to vote against him; may the Conservative Gods forgive me.
I’m leaning toward not voting at all, which is also something that I’ve never done before, but I can always excuse myself for that; ‘Light bulb moment’ the Blue Party of Ontario, not even sure if they are even running a candidate.
Penny, that’s a very good question. Tough to answer right now, other than not Ford and PC.
Off the top, I only know the strict negative about Ford, and I am not an ideologue. I think and judge the candidates and Party leaders, to decide if they are honest and independent and credible in their policy positions, particularly money and environment.
So right now I don’t know the candidate slates and election platforms of any Party, and given that I have no problem with a minority government, that means a lot, as I might vote strategically for an opposition Party, for the best candidate and Party credibility, as the pollsters give us a clue of how the odds are unfolding.
My real objective is to either defeat Ford outright, or vote for the best possible expectation of a minority government.
I will never vote for Ford. As far as I am concerned, he is a crook, and spendthrift, using his political power to order all three local levels of taxpayers money, to participate, increasingly pushing the cost, of his obviously failing Housing Growth Plan.
As many point out he already has a mandate for another year and a half, until June-July 2026, so he definitely does not need a snap election this February to look after Canadian and Ontario citizen interests against Trump.
It’s only for his own interests, as many say, for example, evading the RCMP inquiry into his Green Spaces swindle corruption. In any case, Trump challenges change everything, and if Ford thinks he is going to be effective in this, with his failing Growth Plan failing in his face, he is deluded.
Anyone who pays attention, knows all the infrastructure projects he is spending tens of billions of dollars on, every year, for a failing Plan until 2051. Who is he kidding?
With tariffs or other economic warfare tactics on the horizon, we charge ahead? And does he think we are so stupid that we believe he has enough power to take on the USA and Trump? He might be able to out-talk Trump, as I have heard him perform lately – but fat chance I say.
In the economic terms, even enough new housing to increase supply does not guarantee a fall in price, or more affordability. The housing market around here is price inelastic, and demand is compartmentalized. The politicians present the lack of affordable housing to us as an issue of supply only — just build more to meet demand and prices will come down. But part of the problem is the source of that demand: it’s increasingly investors. It’s not going to be more immigrants.
The Bank of Canada found that investors were responsible for 30 per cent of home purchases in the first three months of 2023. That’s up from 28 per cent in the same period in 2022 and 22 per cent in the same period in 2020. That report also found the percentage of first-time home buyers dropped to 43 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 48 per cent in the same three months in 2020.
Earnings in Canada have lagged significantly behind housing costs, such that the ownership costs of median earnings in an average household increased to 62,6% in 2023 from 35% in 2002 according to a recent RBC report.
If Ford continues his housing plan as his lone economic policy frame, he will put the Province into deeper expenditure and debt, already at more than $430 billion net debt, and it will only benefit his speculator, and developer, and already rich friends. Of course his plan also contains downloads, added to higher lower-level taxes. This path continued will likely not lower prices but raise them. There are more things working at this end.
In fact, that is one thing he stated he wanted an election for – to get a public mandate for spending whatever he says he needs, and to go into more and more expenditure and debt. Don’t believe what he says.