Canadiens vs Senators: underdog value and mispriced odds in 2026

By Sylvester Alton

February 25th, 2026

BURLINGTON, ON

When searching for value on underdogs in the NHL, don’t select the weaker team, rather, look for the team that has been mispriced. The Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators rivalry is one in which mispricing can show up, because perception swings faster than the underlying realities: injuries, goalies, scheduling, and small matchup edges.

Possession of the puck is what the game is all about.

The context surrounding consideration of the 2025-26 season around February of 2026 a standings snapshot or two and generally in the mainstream betting markets, Ottawa has still been priced as the underdog in this pairing. Ottawa has been closer to the playoff picture than many may have expected, sitting above Montreal in the Atlantic standings as of February 2026. As the teams at the top of the table trade blows, the one above generally gets shorter odds even when the head-to-head matchups show a tighter contest than the positions suggest.

Why Ottawa is the natural underdog bet

Ottawa’s strongest case as an underdog is structural. If you’re comparing prices across multiple sportsbooks, a list of the best bookies reviewed by trusted analysts can help you spot market drifts.

Close game potential

Ottawa may occasionally be the inferior squad on paper, but they generally have enough defending savvy to stay within one. That’s all there is to it in underdog betting. When it comes down to one-goal games, a bounce, a post, a power-play call and a goalie standing on his head can either make the difference.

Competitive variance

Games between rivals don’t always respect averages. The tempo of games will increase. There will be a lot of mistakes and special teams can win a game very quickly.

Price influence

Sportsbooks often alter the odds of a specific team because the public views them as the default underdog. Value shows up when the underlying play from Ottawa is better than their actual record.

Markets favouring Ottawa

Moneyline is a favourable bet when the odds are generous and the matchup tight.
Puck line of +1.5 when you expect a close finish.
Regulation vs overtime options if you reckon it will be a tie game late.

Why Montreal can be the better underdog when they are one

It does happen.

The sneaky angle is Montreal won’t be the underdog often. However, when they do emerge, there is typically a specific reason that causes the market to react aggressively.

Two examples: travel fatigue, a goaltender announcement, or an injury headline for a short duration.

That is when “underdog” is a misnomer. Montreal might be a plus-price team and might also be the better team. If the market overcorrects, it may react to news that does not adjust true win probability to the degree the odds suggest.

If you want the best underdog potential, those are the golden spots, you’re not just betting an underdog, you’re betting misperception.

What type of game is likely to emerge from this matchup

Underdogs do well in two settings:

Low-event hockey

Fewer goals lead to tighter finishes. When the total is low or the game is projected to be a tight one, underdogs get leverage as each goal is worth more.

High-event chaos

It may seem contradictory but it is true. When both sides get chances and the game becomes a track meet, the better side still has an edge. But randomness increases and plus-money prices become viable options.

It’s your job to pick your side.

Does he make the save?

When looking for structure and goaltending, Ottawa +1.5 often becomes an appealing option. If you’re expecting chaos and Ottawa’s offence is live, the moneyline may be worth a look, especially at true underdog numbers. When situational factors create an exceptionally rare underdog, Montreal moneyline can become a sharper play.

What “best betting potential” means for 2026

Over the course of a season, the “best underdog” is usually the team that;

• Often gets priced like a dog
• but takes part and excels in numerous close contests

This is Ottawa’s role here. You have a greater chance of getting offered underdog odds, and rivalry conditions may boost upsets.

However, the most valuable underdog bet, the one that professionals appreciate, is the market overreaction on Montreal.

Conclusion

The Ottawa Senators have been the most regular underdog value in 2026 matchups as they are often priced as the dog and they can keep the games close enough for these odds to come into play.

The best “one-off” opportunity: Montreal Canadiens, if a situational narrative turns them into an underdog despite a stronger overall profile.

If you want to wager on this rivalry, choose the underdog. But also choose the reason for the price. And whether that reason is real or not.