Conservatives lead by two points among men, Liberals lead by 19 points among women

By Pepper Parr

March 31st, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

In a campaign that has been remarkable for its volatility and dynamism, a new element enters the race: relative stability.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds voter intention unchanged over the last week, with the Liberal Party holding an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, while the fortunes of the NDP and Bloc remain similarly unchanged.

Asked how they intend to vote, 46 per cent of Canadian voters say they will support the Liberals, compared to 38 per cent for the Conservative Party. Support for the NDP (7%) and Bloc Québécois (7%) continues to linger in single digits.

Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to maintain an advantage among most demographic groups. Men aged 35- to 54-years-old are the only age-gender segment to be more likely to vote Conservative. The Liberals otherwise lead between four points (men older than 55) and 27 points (women older than 55).

Further, Carney’s positive net favourability among both men (+18) and women (+26) remains stable. His rivals – Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh – struggle among one gender or the other. For Poilievre, this represents an ongoing inability to build positive impressions among women – three-in-five (61%) who say they view him unfavourably. For Singh, same problem, only among men, who by a two-to-one margin view him more negatively than positively.

The resurgence of the Liberals fueled by Carney’s election to leader is partially driven by women voters returning to the party after abandoning it at the end of 2024, but also by picking up vote intention from men. In March 2021, support for the Liberals among men ranged from 27 per cent among 18- to 34-year-olds, to 30 per cent among men aged 35 to 54. The Carney Liberals currently are receiving support from 45 per cent of 18- to 34-year-old men and 46 per cent of those older than 54.

The battle at this point is between Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney Carney. The focus is on the gender differences in the data Angus Reid has collected.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh stands a chance of losing his British Columbia seat.

Hovering over all this is the Trump tariff threat – with a major announcement expected on Wednesday.

Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney had his first call with U.S. President Donald Trump, who struck a much more positive tone than seen in recent weeks and described the conversation as “very productive”. Trump also appeared to be more respectful of Carney, considering Trump called Carney by his official title and not governor, as he did with predecessor Justin Trudeau. Canada’s response to the U.S., and the tact taken by the leader of its future federal government, remains a key issue for the campaign.