By Staff
April 1st, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
Liberals hold massive lead among those Comfortable & Thriving on Anhus Reid Economic Stress Index
Economic turmoil between Canada and the United States has taken the headlines this year, perhaps obscuring several positive domestic trends. Falling rents, a grocery cost reprieve, and stable inflation have some Canadians feeling better about their economic stress, and it appears to the benefit of the federal Liberals.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a two-point decrease this quarter in the number of Canadians “Struggling” on the Economic Stress Index, which measures self-professed ability to pay for housing, groceries, and debt, as well as optimism about the coming year and an assessment of past 12 months. This decrease adds to a five-point drop between September and December, meaning approximately one-quarter fewer of those who were Struggling at the beginning of fall say the same now at the beginning of spring (33% down to 25%).
As pundits and observers seek to understand campaign dynamics and the interplay of voters between the Conservative and Liberal Party, consider that the CPC continue to by far the top choice for the Struggling, with more than half of that group (56%) saying they would vote for Pierre Poilievre’s party. This is close to identical to the CPC’s support among the Struggling over the past year. The challenge for Poilievre and co. is that this group has shrunk significantly, and Liberal support has risen from 12 to 26 per cent within it.
The story is equally challenging within other groups across the Economic Stress Index.
Among the Uncomfortable, the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied after the CPC led by 29 points in December. The Liberals lead by 15 points among the Comfortable and 30 within the Thriving. The Conservatives led both groups at the end of 2024.
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Over a few federal election cycles, I’ve played what I call “The Counting Game.” Whenever I run errands, I count the houses with lawn signs (counting multiple signs on one lawn as just one). I take different routes for my return trip, and I make sure to count only the signs ahead of me.
Last week, I drove 8 km, starting and ending in downtown. My count was a draw: 7 signs for each party. The following day, using a different route, I counted 8 Conservative signs to 5 Liberal signs. This week, on another route to the same destination, I saw 12 Conservative signs to 4 Liberal signs.
This morning, I decided to look for Liberal signs outside downtown but below the QEW. I drove 24 km and counted 37 Conservative signs, 28 Liberal signs, 0 for the NDP, and 2 for the People’s Party. I also noticed many seemingly new Canadian flags and generic lawn signs.
After that, I had to run another errand, travelling a round trip of 16 km, where I counted 19 Liberal signs and 8 Conservative signs.
From this, I can conclude that there seems to be a lack of signs overall, along with an abundance of temporary Maple Leaf lawn signs and flags that don’t indicate whom people are voting for. I have no personal stake in this election, and my assets are currently hedged, but I plan to vote Conservative alongside younger voters.
I’ll be posting a variation of this on X to gather a broader sample of opinions. If anyone else wants to join in on the game, I would be very interested in your results. Happy investing, everyone!
Many poles should be taken with a grain of salt.
My concern is that the important things that Canadians are concerned about are not being addressed because of the turmoil of tariffs and Donald Trump.
Another concern is why is Donald Trump eager to negotiate with Mark Carney and the Liberals ( this was said by Donald Trump)? Perhaps Mark Carney aligns himself with Donald Trump’s agenda?
Whatever the outcome let’s all hope that Canadians have the government that hears what we need and follows through with policies that will make our country strong and competitive.
We should never underestimate the power of the silent majority.