Data on the housing market is bleak: Unfortunately, things are going to get worse before they get better.

By Pepper Parr

September 22, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

The Mayor and her Council took part in the opening of the Skyway Community Centre on Saturday.  It is an impressive addition to the sports and community services in the city.

It wasn’t cheap – the city chose to borrow most of the money when the federal and provincial funding that was expected didn’t arrive.

The argument for borrowing was that this was needed for the population growth the city is going to go through.

Mayor Marianne Meed Ward looking over the NHL size rink at the Skyway Community Centre.

One a near-perfect late summer day, the Burlington Teen Tour Band takes part in the opening of the Skyway Community Centre.

Earlier this summer, Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON) approached the University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative to conduct an analysis of the state of new housing in Ontario. Our assessment, based on data obtained from the CMHC and the Altus Group, is bleak.

They examined 34 separate municipalities across nine separate metro areas in the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe region, and assess the state of housing sales and construction over the first six months of the year, relative to the first six months of the previous four years 202125.

Burlington doesn’t have much more land for this type of development. It will be high rise – at the 25 + storey level in the future.

In the first six months of the year, housing starts are down 40% in those 34 municipalities. Condo apartment starts over the past six months are down 54% relative to 202124 January-June averages, and purpose-built rental starts are up 8%. Ground-oriented housing (everything other than apartments) starts are down 42%, showing that the region’s housing weakness is not just a condo-market story.

The reduction in housing starts has economic ramifications. On average, it takes 3.8 years of employment to build a ground-oriented home, and 1.5 years to build an apartment unit. The reduction in housing starts, over the first six months of the year, relative to 202124 averages, translates into 24,195 fewer person-years of employment.

Unfortunately, things are going to get worse before they get better. Housing starts are a lagging indicator, as the CMHC only considers a unit to be “started” when a building’s foundation is 100% complete, so it often reflects the market decisions of several years prior, when the decision to build was made. Pre-construction housing sales are a better indicator of the market’s current health and
are indicative of future housing starts.

Across our 34 municipalities, pre-construction sales of condo apartments are down 89%, and pre-construction ground-oriented sales are down 70%. This is a clear indication that Ontario’s housing situation will get worse before it gets better, and that market weakness is not isolated to the condo market.

Each of our 34 municipalities were assessed across five categories, three reflecting starts (ground-oriented, condo apartments, rental apartments) and two reflecting sales (ground-oriented, condo apartments), and given a grade.

For our 34 municipalities, 22 received an F, and another 5 received a D. While the other seven 7 municipalities received a C or higher, much of that was based on unusually strong housing starts, rather than robust pre-construction sales. Because starts are a lagging indicator, we expect average grades to fall before they rise.

The state of housing construction in the GTA and GGH should alarm policymakers across all three orders of government.

The report on Burlington is set out below:

The City’s Pipeline to Permit report a real time document that shows the status of every development in the city, even those before the Ontario Land Tribunal.