Liberals surge past CPC into majority territory,Singh’s party down to single digits as left of centre voters stampede away from the NDP

By Staff

March 17^th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

A whirlwind first quarter of 2025 has swept up Canadian politics and tossed it back down in an unrecognizable jumble.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the governing Liberal Party – led by newly sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney – surging to a five-point vote intention advantage nationally after trailing by 29 points in late December. Were these numbers to hold, with the Liberals at 42 per cent in vote intention, what was a tired, discardable brand just three months ago would be on its way to a fourth term, this time with a majority.

The causes are myriad, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre losing two of his biggest targets – Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax – and U.S. President Donald Trump generating a wave of Canadian pride and nationalism with tariff and annexation threats. Over this three-month period Liberal support has jumped 30 points in the city of Toronto, 25 points in 905 ridings.

There are serious caveats, however.

While the party has skyrocketed into majority territory not seen since 2016, much of this vote intention lacks solidity. Half of would-be Liberal voters currently say they’re very committed to this position (49%), 17-points lower than the CPC base (66%).

That said, Carney enters the job with some key advantages over Poilievre. He is seen as best to handle the ongoing trade war and Trump’s annexation threats by a majority of Canadians, while Poilievre is seen as best by three-in-10. The same proportions say this when considering which leader will capably steward Canada’s economy more broadly.

More bluntly, 41 per cent now view Carney as best suited to be prime minister compared to 29 per cent for Poilievre. At least measurement, with Trudeau sitting in the PM chair, Poilievre led the Liberal leader by 19 points on this question.

More Key Findings:

• The Liberals now hold two key advantages in vote. In Ontario, 47 per cent would support that party while 41 per cent would vote for the CPC. The Liberals are also in first place in Quebec (39%) with a seven-point lead over the Bloc Québécois (32%). Vote intention is tied in B.C. and Manitoba, while the CPC lead has shrunk but is still massive in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

• The CPC leads by eight points among men over 55 years of age and nine points among those 35 to 54. Young men prefer each party at an equal proportion. Women of all ages now offer a significant advantage to the Liberals, recapturing one of the keys to the party’s success under Trudeau.

• Both of Canada’s longer serving federal party leaders continue to face negative public opinion trends. Poilievre is viewed favourably by 35 per cent and unfavourably by 55 per cent (-22); Singh is viewed favourably by 33 per cent and unfavourably by 58 (-25).

• Trudeau leaves with the approval of 47 per cent of Canadians and the disapproval of 49 per cent. Trudeau’s approval jumped 25 points compared to an all-time low of 22 per cent just weeks before he announced his resignation on Jan. 6.