By Staff
October 2nd, 2024
BURLINGTON, ON
It is an opinion – nothing more than that.
An opinion that is supported by significant polling data which Tom Parkin uses to come to the conclusion that ” an “inevitable Liberal loss is no longer an inevitable Conservative win. For those of us who want Pierre Poilievre to never become prime minister of Canada, there’s some excellent news today.
“Polls from Abacus, Nanos and Mainstreet released this week show the federal NDP overtaking the Liberals. All three pollsters show the Liberals at their lowest level of support since the 2021 election and the NDP in territory they have never or rarely touched since the last vote.
New framing creates pathway to stop Poilievre
“Polls showing the NDP on the upswing and the Liberals on their way out start an important reframing of the next election.
“It’s a new frame Pierre Poilievre won’t like because it removes his preferred enemy and ends the inevitability of his win.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Leader of the Opposition Pierre Poilievre
“As long as the next election was perceived as a battle between the Trudeau Liberals and the Poilievre Conservatives, a Conservative win remained as inevitable as the Liberal loss.
“The reason Poilievre is prime minister-in-waiting is not because his Conservatives are so liked but because the Trudeau Liberals are so disliked. The Conservatives prefer a battle framed as Poilievre versus Trudeau because it ensures they can rely on the large anti-Liberal vote rallying behind them for the win.
“A contest perceived as a battle between Singh and Poilievre is on much less certain ground. Conservatives lose the advantage of fighting the hated Liberals. And they face a new opponent also able to appeal to anti-Liberal voters.
Advancing the plot of the Singh-Poilievre competition
“To both coalesce the anti-Conservative vote and erode Conservative support, the NDP will no doubt attack Poilievre where is out of step with mainstream Canadian opinion and values.
“Look for Singh to talk about Conservatives cutting people’s dental care and pharmacare and point at Poilievre’s lack of climate policy. Singh may also pique memories about past Conservative cuts to veterans’ services, seniors’ pensions and health care transfers.
“The NDP may also point out that Poilievre loudly proclaims his goal to eliminate the $40 billion deficit but keeps his cuts plan quiet.
“The NDP must also reduce its vulnerabilities. Fresh policy can make it more difficult for Conservatives to cast Singh as Trudeau 2.0. And ideally, new stances will bait the Conservatives into showing they would be, like the Liberals were, unwilling to put Canadians first because they are too beholden to corporate interests.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh
“The path to stopping Poilievre is a tough one. But Singh has already done something few junior partners in a coalition or supply deal have been able to do: emerge stronger.
“Two years ago New Democrats were told that was impossible. Now New Democrats will be told the next step is impossible. Hopefully the final step is when Poilievre asks his campaign team what went wrong.”
Jagmeet Singh must be wondering what he needs to do next.
Tom Parkin is a social democratic columnist and commentator based in Toronto who has worked for the NDP in Saskatchewan and Ontario.
The NDP will never be a legitimate option as long as they turn their backs on corporations and business entrepreneurs.
Delusional at this time. The difference between Liberal and NDP support is within the margins of error in the polls. The NDP I believe are down to maybe one seat in Quebec. With Singh at the helm at best they can pull a couple of additional seats in Quebec from the Liberals. He is not a Layton or Mulcair. Maybe another seat in St. Johns and Halifax.
Longer term I see the potential more minority governments or the merging of the NDP and Liberals as the Liberals become irrelevant or unless the Bloc suddenly disappear.
Editor’s note: There has been talk of an NDP – Liberal marriage back in the days when Doug Fisher was an MP – he was the guy that beat CD Howe. Should happen – but proabably not in my life time.
The Bloc is here to stay, we need an “Ontario Party” then we could stop voting for the LibNewCon partys.
Stranger things have happened, just ask Ontario. The give us more freebies at everyone else’s expense cohort, must be giddy.
Parkin certainly has a good imagination. Where is the resurgence of the NDP? It isn’t! While the last few polls have placed the NDP ahead of the Liberals, that result is more the collapse of the Liberal vote than any growth in the support of the NDP. NDP polling numbers have consistently ranged in the 18% to 22% range over the past year.
Look at the NDP vulnerabilities. First, money; the party is almost broke and they do not have the resources to fight an effective election. Second, Jagmeet Singh. Far from having the integrity of a Douglas, Lewis, Broadbent, Mulcair or to a lesser extent, Layton, Singh is accurately portrayed as an opportunistic politician serving no-one but himself. He has little in common with ordinary Canadians that he pretends to champion–from his bespoke suits, Rolexes, BMW, preoccupation with his pension eligibility and even his Versace bag, Singh comes across as self-serving. Questions are already being asked about the use of the financing of his riding office.
Lastly, if I was a Conservative strategy, the pending vote split between the Liberals and the NDP is great news for Conservatives capturing more seats.