Ontario's consumer slump - is this a Doug Ford factor?

By Tom Parkin

January 28th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

This kind of shopping has declined in Ontario – and risen in other provinces.

Ontario’s retail sales in November remained 2.7 per cent lower than June 2022, the month the Doug Ford government was re-elected, according to data released by Statistics Canada.

Ontario’s retail sales recovered to $25.2 billion in November, extending gains for a fourth month, but were $100 million less than December 2023 sales of $25.3 billion and $700 million below the $25.9 billion in sales during June 2022, the month Doug Ford’s PC government was re-elected.

Doug Ford plans to seek re-election.

In the provinces where Canada where Doug Ford is not premier, retail sales hit a new record of $42.4 billion in November, $800 million more than in December 2023 and $1.7 billion or 4.1 per cent more than June 2022.

Ontario consumers in retreat since housing market explosion

Ontario’s consumers went into retreat in spring 2022, after interest rate hikes ignited a housing market fuelled by Ford’s failure to check speculation and build housing supply.

Both the housing run-up and melt-down have been significantly worse than in any other province.

And now, after being lured into buying over-priced homes by ultra-low interest rates and a fear of missing out, many owners face five year mortgage renewals that will put higher interest rates on big borrowing.

Adding to the pain, many houses bought in 2021 or 2022 cannot today be sold for their purchase price.

In Toronto, the epicenter of the price crisis, the retail sales decline has been particularly steep. Toronto retail sales in November 2024 were 3.5 per cent lower than June 2022 even though November’s retail sales included a big boost from Taylor Swift, who played six shows in Toronto that month, bringing tens of thousands of tourists to the city.