By Ray Rivers
January 6th, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
It happened so fast. Nobody is shedding tears over the removal of Nicolas Maduro. And everyone is wondering what comes next. Donald Trump said the US was going to run Venezuela and Marco Rubio was one of the people apparently designated to do the job – kind of like a colonial viceroy.
But Rubio, perhaps recalling the litany of mistakes and missteps GW Bush’s viceroy, Paul Bremer, made in Iraq, has changed his mind. He has disclaimed that he will be running Venezuela. After all, this adventure was really about stealing Venezuela’s oil, not real regime change. So Trump is going to leave Maduro’s government in place with Maduro’s former VP, Delcy Rodrígues as interim president.
Of course she’ll have to do his bidding or suffer a fate worse than Maduro, Trump says. He wants the American big oil companies to come back to the Venezuelan oil fields – which account for the largest petroleum reserves in the world. It was about a quarter century ago when the popular Marxist president Chavez booted them out for ripping off the profits from this natural resource. And Trump’s oil buddies want their revenge.
The bitumen (called tar sands by many is heated or diluted and sent through pipelines.
Venezuela’s oil is much like Alberta’s bitumen and one has to wonder whether the ultimate goal is for America to replace Canadian crude. That would make new pipelines to other destinations seem like a good policy choice for Canadians. Crude oil exports in Canada make up less that 20% of all exports by value. But that still represents over $100 billion a year in gross revenues.
China was a big oil customer and investor. Venezuela is indebted to China by over $100 Billion But they, like Russia, which has also invested heavily in its failing oil sector, must be mixed about Trump’s snatch and grab of a national leader. Trump in a single stroke has justified their claims to Taiwan and Ukraine respectively.
Nicolas Maduro in American custody.
The US president, after revelling in his relatively successful kidnapping of a foreign leader, is now musing about hitting Columbia and Mexico with the same medicine. Oh, and he hasn’t forgotten about annexing Greenland either. Cuba, with an economy on life support will now have to do without the free oil Maduro has been supplying. Trump is hopeful this will bring them to their knees and come begging forgiveness.
Somehow Canada has avoided being in Trump’s sights this time. But wait for it!!! He is a busy fellow. He recently bombed Nigeria and lately has threatened to invade or do something bad to the Iranian government depending on how they handle their huge street protests – protests which are in part a consequence of the American sponsored sanctions driving up living costs.
The global response to the US rogue action has been predictable. Latin America is divided on the right and left, with Argentina cheering and neighbouring Columbia and Brazil protesting. Canada’s opposition parties are on opposite sides of the fence, with Mr. Pollievre, whose wife Anaida is Venezuelan, playing the big cheerleader for the Donald.
Meanwhile the NDP, Greens and Bloc are criticizing the illegality of what was done. Mark Carney has taken his time to respond and was careful not to criticize Mr. Trump, keeping in step with his European counterparts for the most part. It is a fait accompli after all. And he must be thankful that it was them and not us this time.
Venezuela’s leading opposition members, María Corina Machado, who recently received the Nobel peace prize.
Carney did take time to chat with one of Venezuela’s leading opposition members, María Corina Machado, who recently received the Nobel peace prize. She has very strong support in her home country though Mr. Trump has written her off. Perhaps he is annoyed that she won the Nobel and he had to settle for the ‘first ever FiFA peace prize’ – a ridiculous gesture by a football league, and the height of obscene pandering.
Trump’s raid on Caracas was a costly and dangerous escapade. Something like 80 locals were killed, though the Yanks managed to accomplish this feat without fatalities and with only one helicopter clipped by gun fire. And Trump and all his men claim that this was all about administering the law, bringing a man, indicted in a US court to suffer American blind justice.
But Maduro wasn’t an American, he didn’t commit any crimes on American soil, nor did he even threaten American security. He may have deserved to be taken down but that was up to the Venezuelans. He was kidnapped from his own country of which he was the leader, legitimate or not. And this law he is accused of breaking is an American law. The UN may very well determine that this adventure was illegal under the laws established for international disputes, international law.
Following WWII, the UN was created in the hope that wars would be a thing of the past. Nations, led by the USA, established a legal framework for disputes among nations. But that was a long time ago, and memories are short. And there are some world leaders who can’t be bothered following the rules – they just get in the way of ambition.
So when it comes to international politics today, we are devolving. It’s becoming all Darwinian, the strong survive and might-makes-right. That is the law of the jungle and that is no law at all.
Ray Rivers, a Gazette Contributing Editor, writes regularly applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking. Rivers was once a candidate for provincial office in Burlington. He was the founder of the Burlington citizen committee on sustainability at a time when climate warming was a hotly debated subject. Ray has a post graduate degree in economics that he earned at the University of Ottawa. Tweet @rayzrivers
Background links.
Canadian Oil – Maduro – The Law – Venezuela Opposition – International Law –
Ray’s oped can be summed up in a few words ” Pierre Poilievre right again on pipe lines.”
Congrats to Trump, the US Military and US law enforcement to bring this monster to justice. What an operation!
The Canadian complacency is mind boggling, regarding the speed at which we need to build. Trump’s administration moves at lightening speed, only a fool would bet against him, we’ve seen 4 years of his first term, he mounted a 4 year return to office, mopped the floor with his competition and the first year has been one win after another.
Just compare that to Carney’s first year, a big nothing burger. Now he’s losing MP’s by the day, and just yesterday the conservative MP from Vernon BC called him out in dramatic fashion when he was approach by the Liberals to cross the floor.
Investment will follow Trump, he gets things done, that will impact investment flowing into Canadian oil and gas. The global oil market is tight, an additional million or two million barrels per day on the market makes a big difference in oil price. Trump needs to curb inflation in the US and he’s focused on energy – economically it makes sense, energy is at the core of everything.
On the flip side Carney is adding tax to energy, this is absolutely not good for Canada as he flies around the world peddling his outdated carbon credit pyramid scheme.
I’m in the US again for the winter, I’ve seen gas below $2/gal, even in lefty California its less than $4/gal. Prices seem the same as last winter, hotels were economical along the way, green fees are reasonable and unchanged.
No issue at US customs, we were waived through in minutes with a thumbs up, contrary to reports on the CBC. US officials waived us through for no cost at the bridge toll and a nice young lady gave us a free car wash in Terre Haute for our salt battered Jeep. Real boots on the ground reporting.
Fixing the Oil infrastructure in Venezuela will cost Billions and could take up to 10 years.Big Oil will want a lot of guarantees and security before shareholders would buy in.This means “boots on the ground” and US control for years and years.
Lots of time to build out pipelines to the pacific for Canada.
Canada “lost a decade” by those wanting to leave our oil in the ground. The issue was never whether Canada should pursue a greener economy; it was whether we were capable of managing a transition while responsibly developing existing resources.
We did not need an either/or choice. We needed the political discipline to walk and chew gum at the same time – reducing emissions, investing in innovation, and diversifying the economy while preserving market access for oil and gas during a transition that was always going to take decades, not years.
That failure now raises uncomfortable but legitimate questions. Did prolonged indecision and internal political conflict narrow our strategic options? Did we weaken a revenue base that still helps fund social programs and equalization transfers? If so, the consequences are economic and structural, not ideological.
Comparisons to Venezuela are useful to a point. Canada’s risk is different: allowing allies and competitors alike to benefit from our hesitation while we debate absolutes instead of governing trade-offs.
Energy security is a geopolitical reality. If the U.S. sources crude elsewhere, including from politically unstable regimes, that should sharpen Canada’s thinking, not reassure it. New pipelines to diversified markets were never about denying climate change; they were about sovereignty, leverage, and resilience.
Oil exports may represent less than 20 percent of Canada’s total exports, but over $100 billion annually is not marginal. Losing that revenue before building a durable replacement would strain public finances at a time of rising costs and slowing growth.
The transition required bridges, not slogans. The real question is whether Canada is prepared to govern accordingly.