Bonnie' meltdown is Marit's opening. But bringing down Doug will demand real discipline.

By Tom Parkin

September 16th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

Beating Doug Ford’s communications strategy will require some tough message discipline from the Ontario NDP, starting with setting the story.

On most tested issues, large majorities of Ontarians give poor marks to the Doug Ford PCs, but 45 per cent say they would vote PC anyway, according to an Angus Reid poll released Friday.

The bottom 12 are pocketbook issues – Ford doesn’t rate well in any of them.

That group who rate the PCs poorly yet support them electorally is the mysterious key to Doug Ford’s continuation as Ontario premier.

Unravelling that mystery is the opposition’s central challenge, and that job now falls to Marit Stiles and her Ontario NDP after the Ontario Liberals’ implosion at their weekend convention.

Liberal meltdown redefines strategic conditions in Ontario

Until yesterday the Ford PCs had the advantage of being able to pick their preferred competitor between two opponents. The PCs picked Crombie and spent heavily on advertising, driving up her negatives, greatly increasing awareness of her, and driving the narrative, eagerly encouraged by the Toronto Sun and key Toronto Star writers, that Crombie’s Liberals were the main threat to the PC Party.

As an opponent, Crombie offered three things: few ideological reasons to prefer her over him; high negatives the PCs could drive higher; and the Liberals’ horrible vote inefficiency.

Framing Ontario politics as a choice between Ford and Crombie goes some way to explaining how only 27 per cent believe Ontario is on the right track but 45 per cent would vote for the PC party, according to Angus Reid.

Marit Stiles now has a second chance to tackle the root problem, which is Ford’s media dominance.

The Liberals’ disarray will at least temporarily disrupt the presumption that the main threat to the PCs comes from the Ontario Liberals, allowing the NDP’s Stiles a new chance to redefine the Ontario political narrative, with herself in the role of main protagonist against Doug Ford.

Ford’s media dominance challenges Stiles’ opportunity

But it won’t be easy. The end of Ford’s ability to pick his preferred competitor is no guarantee Stiles can cast herself in the key role opposite Ford. It is possible Ford can continue as an unopposed political force in a unipolar media environment.

Ford floods the media zone with opinionated comment, often on issues not in his bailiwick. But whether he is excusing vandalism of municipal speed-check machines, asking the federal government for U.S.-style “castle laws,” or attacking a school board trustee in Tiny Township, Doug Ford dominates as a news source.

As a result, only four per cent can’t state an opinion of Doug Ford while 36 per cent don’t know enough about Stiles to make a judgement, according to Angus Reid.

But Stiles’ low voter awareness is a symptom, which is why a previous attempt to fix it with a name recognition advertising campaign did not work. Stiles now has a second chance to tackle the root problem, which is Ford’s media dominance.

In the United States, debate over how to counter a flood-the-zone strategy has taken several directions. Some focus on the strategy’s ability to sensationalize media, and put an emphasis on — oh so gently, of course — reminding some reporters that journalism is a lot more than writing down the comments of government leaders or dressing up planted partisan gossip as accidental information leaks.

Another direction, recently used with some success by California Governor Gavin Newsom, has been to troll the absurdity and inanity frequently deployed to keep the zone fully flooded.

And there is redirection. Flooding the zone generates white noise and redirects media and voters to minor themes, obscuring the big story.

A counter-tactic of pivoting from the latest distraction to the big story could put Ford on the defence and create policy contrast opportunities. But the challenge is being able to articulate the One Big Story. The U.S. Democrats, in their leaderless ideological and policy incoherence, have been unable to rally around one story.

Nothing strategic in this stunt. Basically all Ford has is stunt after stunt.

Uniting around the big story takes research, personal-political work, fieldwork and discipline. There’s a lot to be done and though the Liberals are in shambles now, they will come back if the opportunity is open long.

A better provincial partner to Ottawa’s offers

Angus Reid’s data points to one pillar of strength for the Ford PCs. Among the 15 issues tested, only on the province’s relationship with Ottawa do a majority find the Ford PCs have done a good job.

But if a good relationship simply means not fighting with Ottawa, perhaps Ford is only getting over a low-set bar and expectations should be raised.

This spring Prime Minister Carney asked premiers to recommend nation-building projects. Doug Ford’s response was poor for Ontarians and a bit offensive to Carney’s offer.

Ford requested federal help building his fantasy tunnel under highway 401, a silly idea that made Carney’s entire nation-building concept look dumb. And while developing the Ring of Fire is important, Ford pushing it on the feds after seven years of making zero progress is throwing his mess onto Ottawa’s lap. It’s actually quite disrespectful.

A better provincial partner would seek federal help on a plan to revive Ontario’s industrial base in a province where 800,000 Ontarians are now jobless. But Ford doesn’t appear to believe there’s a jobs problem, judging from his recent comments blaming unemployed workers for their unemployment. So Ontario has no plan to revive the manufacturing sector.

Tell the big story about what’s wrong with Ontario.

A stronger Ontario partner with a plan to strengthen manufacturing innovation, productivity and investment could ask for federal policy co-ordination to bolster its effectiveness. But there is no plan and Ottawa can’t co-ordinate with a plan that doesn’t exist.

A better partner that wants to keep forward momentum on health care might also seek to sign a pharmacare deal with Ottawa, an idea the Ford PCs have let drop. Four other jurisdictions have signed deals which financially help individuals and businesses while expending coverage.

Kicking down the one strong pillar of Ford’s support might be easier than thought and could combine well with an effort to tell the big story about what’s wrong with Ontario, and why it doesn’t get fixed. Doug Ford should figure prominently in that story because he does.