By Ray Rivers
January 15th, 2023
BURLINGTON, ON
Stephen Harper first announced he was pursuing a non- competitive bid to procure 65 F-35s to replace Canada’s aging 80 McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornets back in 2010. The plane was brand spanking new and its projected cost then was estimated at C$15 billion all-in. Deliveries would have started in 2016 but he ran into trouble selling the public advanced fighter jets at a time when nobody really thought we needed them.
The decision to begin replacing these CF18 Hornets was made in 2005 with delivery to start in 2016
Some critics claimed the real cost could have been as high as $25 billion. There were concerns that the plane, unlike the CF-18 it would have replaced, came with only a single engine. Some test pilots reported that the plane was sluggish, slower and less manoeuvrable in an aerial dogfight compared to other jet fighters. Dogfights are not just the legends of Snoopy and the Red Baron or the movie Top Gun. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was marked by some spectacular aerial acrobatics until Russia lost too many of its own planes.
Harper never got to buy his planes because Mr. Trudeau won the 2015 election and cancelled the purchase on an election promise. But seven years later he’s now changed his mind and we’re buying 88 of them for $19 billion, with deliveries starting in 2026. Confidence in the aircraft no longer appears to be an issue as Canada will be joining a number of western nations moving to this plane including Germany, Japan and Australia.
And it sounds like a good deal since, even after 13 years, the cost of each plane has only risen by about 7%. That is if you can believe any of these numbers. Canada was a partner in the original design of the aircraft and some Canadian content should sweeten the deal. And this time the military had run some kind of competition among potential suppliers. And the F-35 beat out the underdog Swedish SAAB jet fighter.
Clouds of war made buying the F35 the best choice. It has become the NATO choice – but delivery doesn’t start until 2026.
Besides, the pressure is on for Canada to get up to its 2% of GDP defence spending NATO commitment – and this will help. The F-35 is pretty much becoming NATO’s go-to fighter anyway. Technology sharing, and common architecture are important factors, especially with our primary ally, the USA. But most importantly, while in 2010 we were still dining-out on the so-called peace dividend, today the clouds of war are all around us.
The world order has changed. Russia has broken every international rule nations had all agreed on post WWII and is committing exactly the kind of imperialist aggression the creation of the UN was intended to prevent. Tomorrow it’s expected to be China, with a much more dangerous agenda as it invades Taiwan and takes on the USA in the process. Then there is North Korea.
Canada is an expansive nation with a long coast line in need of defending, but these stealth birds are way beyond overkill when it comes to border patrol, at least compared to less expensive drones and good old fashion radar. In fact the F-35 is best suited to the battlefield. It’s what we have been doing as part of NATO’s efforts in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya.
Aside from the billions of dollars needed to buy these birds, there is the huge environmental impact of these and all war planes. The F-35 burns 22 gallons of jet fuel per minute, 1,340 gallons of fuel and over two tonnes of CO2 emissions per flying hour. Training flights from one US airbase alone emitted between 50 and 100 tonnes of CO2 per year, the equivalent of 10,000 to 20,000 passenger cars. So much for the carbon tax and meeting our climate change commitments.
President Joe Biden seems pleased – Canada is signing on to the F35 – Prime Minister Trudeau doesn’t seem as assured.
To be clear the F-35 is considered the best stealth fighter jet out there today. And Canada is a wealthy nation, one of the G7, so affordability should not an issue. I’m a pacifist, a ‘let’s melt our swords into plow shares’ kind of guy so I’d rather see the money spent on a basic income program, a cross country high speed rail system, EV charging stations everywhere, investment in major renewable energy infrastructure, and of, course, a badly needed overhaul of our health care system.
But I’m also a big fan of being prepared and collective security. I’m reminded of the naivety of the Ukrainian leaders shortly after the Soviet empire collapsed. They were convinced to scrap their nuclear arsenal, the third largest at the time on paper promises that their territorial integrity would be respected. We all know how that story ended.
There is a lesson to all that. We are not as civilized as we’d like to think. You may love your neighbour but you’re never sure how far you can trust him/her when push comes to shove.
And, with the acquisition of these advanced aircraft, well, good fences make better neighbours.
It is hopelessly naive to assume that USA will always defend Cdn borders/interests, esp with a spineless fop as our current PM…Ukraine learned the hard way that having good friends are useful…Until they aren’t.
The reality is that Canada cannot defend itself if there was ever a decision for USA to come up, Russia come over, or China comes west to take us over; not without help from others…but it can’t hurt to have at least some modicum of defence capacity, and meet our international NATO obligations for defence spending?!? Plow shares don’t mean SFA if you’ve been invaded and taken over due to neoliberal complancency…Remember T. Roosevelt: “Speak softly, and carry a big stick.” We have the exact opposite in Canada right now: Bombastic speeches, and no actual delivery on promises…
Imagine my surprise that fancy socks Trudeau didn’t hold out for the EV version of the F35 as he hurtles Canada towards the financial abyss. I helped certify the A10 Fairchild Warthog landing gear at Menasco in Montreal which essentially is what the F35 is replacing. For Mr. Rivers to suggest that this is financially a good deal for Canada is outrageous. The cost/availability of parts and labour to undertake this project ten years late will be massive to the taxpayers. I was at Warplane Heritage last week. The US armed forces currently have insufficient labour to maintain the military equipment they currently have. Let that sink in.
As is customary with Ray a lot of words,opinion and supposition and not based on facts.
Let’s not kid ourselves and fall for the Ottawa talking points, in 2014/2015 this was never about reliability and performance, it was a Liberal wedge issue that cost Canadians billions.
Here’s our Prince of Misinformation talking about providing a less expensive solution Justin Trudeau says Liberals would scrap F-35 order –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8puNVW2hFM Watch the video, how out of touch is our PM thinking that we only need to defend North America when our troops are on peace keeping missions and other NATO nations are engaged in sticky global issues, pure naivety. None of what Trudeau promised for the military in 2015 came to pass, more broken promises.
The Joint Strike Fighter program started in 1997 with the concept being to provide a standard fighter for NATO nations, kind of like the South West Air model. NATO pilots would be trained on similar aircraft, parts would be manufactured in NATO countries providing security and robust supply chain and lower overall cost due to volume production numbers. Canada was part of this program.
I was with GE in 2010 and sat in a seminar with CEO Jeff Immelt discussing this program and GE’s bid to provide engines for the F35. Point is there was heavy competition for components; GE lost the bid to Pratt and Whitney. There was clearly competition built into the program. Also, the F35 was selected through an overall competitive process as Canada had been partners of the program for 13 years – to claim it was not a competitive process was misleading the Canadian public.
To say Canada ran a competition and was considering a Saab (Gripen I assume) is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison, the F35 is twice the cost of the Gripen, a next gen aircraft with 3 times as many units constructed. The F35 is used by our NATO allies, the Saab largely used by Sweden and recently Brazil.
Prior to 2015 the military had green lighted the program and Liberals killed it and then proceed to spend billions failing to procure an alternate jet through multiple procurement initiatives. Can you imagine the reaction from NATO partners (Wilma Tango Foxtrot) , Canada decides to bail out on the program and goes shopping? It’s not a surprise our bid failed miserably for the UN Security Council in 2019 lead by our local MP.
The announcement from Ottawa is $19B for 88 aircraft, the real cost according to government estimates is $70B! This includes much of the waste dithering over the last 7 years.
Since 2015 our military has kept our 30+ year old Hornets together with duct tape and binder twine, we even bought decommissioned planes from other nations to harvest parts. Is this what a G7 nation does? Sounds more like the approach of a shade tree mechanic in West Virginia.
When looking at the history, the claims of reliable and performance are incomprehensible. The F-35 first flew in 2006 and entered service with the U.S. Marine Corps F-35B in July 2015, followed by the U.S. Air Force F-35A in August 2016 and the U.S. Navy F-35C in February 2019. We second guessed the US Navy, Air Force and Marines?? Really?
The aircraft was first used in combat in 2018 by the Israeli Air Force – 4 years ago!
There are now 860 F35’s constructed, so it took this many planes to convince our drama teacher PM the time was now right?
History has shown that there were always sociopathic leaders disrupting peaceful nations. Military hardware is as much about deterrence as it is about operational performance. Think about the carbon footprint of the invasion in Ukraine and balance that against the carbon required for deterrence, conceptually it’s a no brainer.
Freedom is not free, but should not be made far more expensive by divisive politicians using wedge issues for political gain.
Michael great comment, just one thing, Trudeau was an assistant drama teacher, his acting credentials landed him the long running starring role as the Prime Minister of Canada, exactly how long this show runs depends mostly on his unwavering, adoring and participating audience.
I think we have to remember that Russia butts up against our northern border.Canadians have always thought that the USA will protect us.Maybe and maybe not.
Although I share your plow shares philosophy, I have to wonder why there is this delay in giving Ukraine western fighters. The sooner they are able to take on the Russians at longer range and further interdict their remote missile firing the quicker all this will end. Then we can go back to plow shares.