By Staff
August 1st, 2024
BURLINGTON, ON
Tom Parkin writes a regular “Data Shows” column; this week he focuses on the advertising spending being done by three political parties in Ontario and publishes other data relevant to what is taking shape as the province begins to prepare for the next election.
Parkin claims that Bonnie Crombie’s negatives rise as PC ad campaign bites and that the expensive Liberal leader drains resources needed to counter PCs’ campaign against her
Bonnie Crombie entering a Liberal Party event in Hamilton. At times it looked like a Coronation.
“Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie has increasingly become an expensive millstone around her party’s neck as a well-funded PC advertising campaign drives up her disapproval scores, monthly polling data from Abacus shows.
“Crombie’s disapproval score has increased six points from 25 per cent in the first Abacus poll taken after her December 2023 leadership win to 31 per cent in Abacus’ July poll.
“Liberals will also be concerned that Crombie’s pool of supporters is shrinking. Her approval score that has fallen three points from 28 to 25 per cent from January to July.
“Abacus’s July poll pegs Crombie’s positive impression score now one point below her Ontario Liberal Party’s 26 per cent support and two points below the federal Liberals’ 27 per cent support in Ontario.
“Without a seat, the Ontario Liberals are paying Crombie a salary of $185,000: data confirmed by the party. Assuming her salary and other expenses usually paid by the legislature total more than $200,000 a year, having a seat less leader is costing the Liberals $4,000 a week. While $4,000 isn’t enough to close the weekly advertising gap with the PCs, it would triple the Liberals’ current advertising budget.
Marit Stiles has proven to be feisty but has yet to land a solid punch on the Premier.
“Ontario Liberals have justified Crombie’s pay rate, which is higher than Official Opposition leader Marit Stiles, calling it a “considerable” pay cut from the nearly $300,000 Crombie took home while Mississauga mayor.
“The Ontario PCs are vastly outspending the Ontario Liberals on internet advertising, most of it aimed at Crombie and much of it targeting her home territory of Mississauga.
“The Progressive Conservatives clearly want to keep Crombie out of the Legislature by making it very difficult for her to find a seat in the legislature.
“A recent analysis by Data Shows found the PCs spending over $13,000 a week on Facebook ads while the Liberals spent just $1,200 a week. Marit Stiles’ Ontario NDP spent about $2,500 a week.
“In 2023, the Ontario PCs raised $8.0 million, the Ontario NDP $3.2 million and the Ontario Liberals $2.1 million.”
Data tells the story at this point.
However, Doug Ford has his own problems.
Parkin was with the Workers Health and Safety organization for close to 20 years. He is currently a Principal with Impact Strategies, creating media impact for clients who want their story heard.
Dr. Adil Shamji, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Ted Hsu, why even Charles Sousa, would have been a better choice than Crombie. Crombie was Mayor of a city where developers effectively “run the show”, so there’s little likelihood that, if elected Premier, she would ever consider reversing Ford’s ridiculous intensification agenda, protecting greenbelt lands, or restoring local autonomy to municipal councils.
Voters are desperate for someone who can lead this province, and provide the kind of moderate, balanced, evidence-based decision-making one would expect from experienced leadership. Doug Ford’s government is awash in scandal, policy reversals and populist gimmicks, many of which are both superficial and silly. Moreover, his Cabinet is filled with flunkies, so it’s unlikely we can expect a backroom revolt anytime soon.
Wab Kinew’s government in Manitoba looks and sounds pragmatic, and their poll numbers reflect that, quite unlike Ford’s. When the NDP actually look and sound like the most sensible, reasonable alternative you know something is profoundly askew with our political system.
I can certainly agree with you that Bonnie Crombie is a poor choice as Liberal leader and that Doug Ford’s government is an absolute failure in Ontario for the reasons given. But after giving some praise to Wab Kinew and his NDP government as it approaches its one year in power in Manitoba you still find general fault with the historical NDP way of governing.
I belong to no party and have actually never voted NDP (also earlier called CCF in Saskatchewan and called Labour in the UK), but I resist painting the NDP as always unacceptable. Our one brush with NDP in power in Ontario last century under Bob Rae left much to be desired, as did the short NDP government in Alberta this century, but there have been successes in BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Nova Scotia and the Yukon as well as in the UK many times including today.
With the Liberals in disarray in Ontario, perhaps the “new left” as Tony Blair would say should be given more consideration in the next contest to disarm Doug Ford and his flunkies. I certainly will be considering the NDP for the first time.