Flooding: We did know then what we needed to know now - the Mayor just didn't act on it

By Pepper Parr

July 18^th, 2024

BURLINGTON, ON

OPINION

There is a phrase that we  hear often at City Council meetings: “It has been a learning experience” when something went wrong and no one takes responsibility.  We see this as really lax discipline and a classic case of failure on the part of both Staff and Council to be held accountable.

We were fortunate as a city , if such a thing can be said, that there was some provincial funding paid out to homeowners who had to make major repairs to their basements in 2014.

There were reports produced and they got that “Receive and File” status.

We knew in 2014 that creeks got clogged with fallen tree limbs and branches that had accumulated in the often dry empty creeks bottoms.

We didn’t expect 150 to 200 mm of rain in a six hour period.

When that rain came rushing through the creeks the tree limbs and branches were shoved along creeks that could not handle the volume and the clutter jammed and forced water out on the streets and into the basements of hundreds of homes.

We didn’t see that August 2014 rain coming.  The words climate change were not yet part of our vernacular.

But we know that now, we have known that for some time.  Where were the people who are very well paid to do constant risk analysis on every city program?

There were few unknowns after the 2014 flood.  The only thing we didn’t know was – when would the next heavy rain storm come?

City Council made a big hairy deal over declaring a Climate Change Emergency. Burlington is very good at making big statements.  Not so good at making big decisions.

It’s worse than that however.

In July of 2018 in anticipation of the 4 year anniversary of the flood some of the people working with Marianne Meed Ward on her run for the Office of Mayor prepared a report for her setting out in significant detail what the challenge was and what could be done to prepare for floods in the future.

That report was given to Marianne, it was discussed with her at length and made part of her election platform.  Rick Goldring, the incumbent at the time knew he was in trouble; the Meed Ward storm water report didn’t help.

In a report the Gazette wrote on the plan Meed Ward had we quoted her as saying: “As your mayor I will support measures to reduce flooding causes, and effects at the city level by Advocating responsible growth, not over-development.”

A link to that Gazette article is set out below.

The report given to Meed Ward follows/

We sometimes say: If we knew then what we know now – what a difference it would have made.

The truth is – we did know then what we needed to know.

Home Flood Protection Program:

 Burlington, Ont., Aug. 4, 2017— The University of Waterloo, Province of Ontario and City of Burlington announced  the launch of the Home Flood Protection Pilot Program.

• • Developed by University of Waterloo and the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation( and applied research centre); delivered by AET Consulting; subsidized by Intact Insurance Co., Province of Ontario, City of Burlington
  • The Home Flood Protection Program aims to help homeowners identify flood risks, take action to reduce those risks and support preventative maintenance activities that reduce risks over the long-term. This is achieved by a trained assessor who completes a 50-point visual assessment of potential sources of water entry into the home and discusses preventative maintenance practices with homeowners.
  • A confidential report is created to provide homeowners with a list of the top actions to reduce flood risk. The pilot program is available for single-family homeowners for a subsidized fee of $125 across Burlington from August to December 2017.
  • Overall numbers unavailable (from source) but major uptake in Burlington was from the southwest and north sectors of the City – those most impacted by the flooding.
• January 2018 announced that the program would be extended to other jurisdictions across Ontario plus Saskatoon:
  • City of Toronto – official launch July 11, 2018
  • Brantford
  • Bowmanville
  • Clarington
  • Hamilton
  • Oakville
  • Waterloo Region
• Special promotion offered to Burlington residents beginning January 2018 – 100 free assessments on a ‘first come, first served’ basis.
  • As of July 11/2018 – only 92 new registrations with the program
  • City of Burlington staff source ( A. Shahzad) claimed that there was a quota (~150) but there seemed to be a general lack of interest in the program.
  • Majority of take-up is during the summer (based on one year of operation).
  • Informal feedback is that people are pleased with information they receive re ongoing maintenance (i.e. back-up valves).

City’s Response to August 4, 2014 – Chronology of Events/Actions:

Note: The follow is a list of reports that were prepared; many of the documents are no longer available on the city web site – why? that’s another story

Aug. 14, 2014 – Special Burlington City Council Meeting (F-36-14)

Sept. 8, 2014 – Flood presentation at Development and Infrastructure Committee (DI-16-14)

Sept. 22, 2014 – Report providing information on a program to assist homeowners with the cost of building permit fees for flood prevention (PB-85-14) Appendix to the report

Sept. 29, 2014 – Report recommending approval to establish a Flood Disaster Relief Committee (CM-14-14)

Nov. 17, 2014 – Report providing a storm water update regarding the Aug. 4 flood (CW-03-14)

Jan. 14, 2015 – Halton Region Basement Flooding Mitigation Study – Update #2

Feb. 18, 2015 – Halton Region Basement Flooding Mitigation Study – Update #3

Mar. 15, 2015 – City of Burlington Flood Response Update #1

• Key status piece/review for projects and planned mitigations
• Identifies the 15 priority projects across the city.
• Response is multi-faceted but bureaucratic and focused on symptoms rather than root causes.

April 22, 2015 – Halton Region Basement Flooding Mitigation Study – Update #4

April 30, 2015 – Conservation Halton report August 4, 2014 Storm Event, Burlington

May 20, 2015 – Halton Region Basement Flooding Mitigation Study – Update #5

July 6, 2015 – City of Burlington report providing an update regarding the Flood Vulnerability and Prioritization Study (CW-09-15) Appendix E – Figure 1  Appendix E – Figure 2

July 8, 2015 – Halton Region report PW-22-15 – Region Wide Basement Flooding Mitigation Study: Final Report and Recommendations

 June 15, 2016 – Halton Region report PW-18-16 Region Wide Basement Flooding Mitigation Program

June 17, 2017  –  City of Burlington report prepared by Amec Foster Wheeler Urban-Area Flood Vulnerability, Prioritization and Mitigation Study

Characteristics of City’s Flood Risk Mitigation Program:

• Recognizes that floods are not unique occurrences but that severe climatic events will be recurring “as the frequency and severity of extreme weather due to climate change is increasing …”
  • However, City still targets the after-effects rather than addressing root causes and getting ahead of the curve.
• Every City initiative is focused on home-owner self-help. There is no holistic or broad systemic response and no response that is innovative.
• “It is the City of Burlington’s responsibility to manage the storm sewer system and creeks to ensure stormwater runoff is safely carried away to reduce the risk of flooding”;
  • Hired AMEC Foster Wheeler (stormwater consultants) to analyse the storm, the impact on stormwater drainage and suggest mitigation measures.
  • July 15/2015 – preliminary findings presented to Council – additional $20.4 million added to multi year (10 year window) budget for stormwater infrastructure improvements.
    • `$ 2million/yr. for capital projects and upgrades such as larger creek culverts and improvements to creek channels.
    • Traditional erosion control and capacity increase solutions with planned projects that were accelerated with the marginally increased funding.
    • Three completed Spring/Summer 2018 – four years after the event.
      • Roseland Creek capacity
      • Tuck Creek erosion control
      • Tuck Creek capacity
    • Others scheduled for completion 2019-2020
  • Advice and remedial actions target the ‘homeowner’ as the responsible agent; focused on the private citizen in isolation and address the effects of a potentially recurring problem with traditional responses (i.e. increase capacity); does not holistically address the broader impacts of climate change over time with integrated, interdependent solutions.
  • List of subsidies available but again the onus is on the homeowner to effect or action.

Latest Findings and Reports:

Amec Foster Wheeler – Final Report (July 31/2017)

• Final report three (3) years after the event.
• Concluded that past vulnerability assessments were piecemeal – watershed by watershed rather than city-wide and comprehensive.
• Noted that “most of the flood vulnerable areas have been identified on a theoretical basis only (i.e. hydrologic and hydraulic modelling).”
• Identifies the most severely impacted watersheds:
  • Roseland creek
  • Tuck creek
  • Shoreacres creek
  • Appleby creek
• Potential issues with the reliability of the base data and models – used the most current available hydrologic and hydraulic models; did not develop new ones for the assessment. Several of the City’s modeling platforms were/are seriously dated.
• Ironically, the Regional Storm floodlines rather than the August 4^th storm floodlines were used for many watersheds because the digital data was available and reasonably similar +/- 10%. Assume this is within an acceptable margin of error.
• A series of limitations are noted with the assessment (p.36-37) – several appear serious. Leads to questions of overall accuracy/utility.
• The data show that Low Density Residential is the most vulnerable land use in the City’s urban area, representing 73% of all flood vulnerable buildings. When all residential land uses are combined, they constitute 82% of flood vulnerable buildings in the City-wide urban area. The data also indicate that Tuck Creek contains the greatest number of flood vulnerable buildings, followed by Roseland Creek and Appleby Creek; these three (3) creeks (in addition to Shoreacres Creek) were also the hardest hit on August 4th, 2014.
• A summary of the analysis and results is as follows:
  • ► 118 culverts/bridges assessed
  • ► Twenty (20) arterial structures have capacities less than or equal to the 5 year event (Note: This inherently conservative assessment does not account for the influence of manmade storage upstream of roadway and railway culverts)
  • ► 62 structures do not meet MTO B-100 criteria
  • ► 69 structures do not meet all criteria (MTO and MNRF)
  • ► Limitations of assessment (error) are similar to those expressed for FVA characterization
  • ► Where FVRs are downstream of priority FVAs, culvert upgrades have been considered for the short-list of flood mitigation alternatives.

Study Recommendations:

1. Work with partner agencies to establish/improve a network of stream flow and rainfall gauges for representative watersheds to assist in future extreme event characterization and calibration of future hydrologic modelling;
2. Undertake on a City-wide basis for each watershed / subwatershed detailed minor-major system hydrologic/hydraulic modelling to further characterize flood risk associate with urban stormwater conveyance including surface and storm sewer conveyance and confirm priority UFVAs identified herein;
3. Update stormwater management design standards, including formally updating IDF relationships and design storms on a periodic basis. Climate change considerations should be incorporated in the guidelines for design of stormwater management systems and conveyance infrastructure;
4. Complete a detailed assessment (i.e. simulation of spatially/temporally varying rainfall) for the August 4th, 2014 storm with consideration for peak flow attenuation behind culverts for Shoreacres and Appleby Creek to determine if the hydrologic models are underestimating runoff response (Note: the Tuck Creek hydrologic model underestimated August 4th, 2014 peak flows in the headwaters). The results of this assessment should be considered in the development of any future hydrologic modelling for City watersheds
5. Strategically update hydrologic models City-wide to account for changes in land use and as deemed necessary by flood mitigation projects recommended herein or other future projects. Model calibration and use of common modelling platforms would be considered beneficial;
6. Partner with Conservation Halton to update riverside hydraulic modelling City-wide, and update the assessment of riverine flood risk (RFVA characterization) completed herein as these models become available in order to confirm priority RFVAs;
7. Undertake the next stage of studies (Class Environmental Assessments and Master Drainage Plans) for the flood mitigation projects recommended herein to refine the flood risk characterization, consider environmental, social and economic constraints, consult the public and ultimately confirm the efficacy of the projects prior to implementation;
8. Optimize infrastructure sizing for culverts, channelizations and flood control facilities at the next level of study and undertake impact assessments to minimize flood impacts to upstream or downstream properties.
9. Based on Urban Area Flood Mitigation assessments include infrastructure not evaluated in the current study and consider full range of potential solutions. Update the City’s capital project prioritization based on the updated assessment.
10. The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) 2014, Section 3.1.5 specifies that certain high risk land uses such as hospitals, long term care homes, schools, essential emergency services, etc. not be permitted in the floodplain (ref. Appendix L). Future studies should consider these uses and the related risks in developing appropriate strategies.
11. Outcomes from the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation (University of Waterloo) (ref. Appendix I) Home Flood Protection Program) should be considered going forward in building flood resiliency in the City’s residential communities. – ongoing
12. As part of future watershed-based master plans, key road networks used for emergency services should be considered and integrated as part of the overall flood management solutions (ref. Appendix L).
13. The City’s future watershed-based master plans should build from a sound local knowledge base related to past (historic) and on-going management practices. Feedback, through post-construction monitoring of the effectiveness of these works, should form an adaptive management mechanism to improve future designs and approaches.
14. The City should seek out to partner with area stakeholders, including Conservation Halton, Region of Halton, utility companies, developers and others to implement fully integrated solutions compliant with Municipal and Provincial policy.
15. The Region of Halton has initiated a downspout disconnection program partially in response to the August 4, 2014 storm. The City will work with the Region to encourage participation and awareness of this program and also consider its influence on future surface drainage assessments – done

For those of you who need some time to put your feet up – this is going to be disturbing news.

Salt with Pepper is the musings, reflections and opinions of the publisher of the Burlington Gazette, an online newspaper that was formed in 2010 and is a member of the National Newsmedia Council.

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