Housing: Combined new and resale inventory reached 12,106 units, up just 1% annually — the slowest growth in three years

By Gazette Staff

July 20, 2026

BURLINGTON, ON

The numbers aren’t anywhere near what is needed in the way of housing.

The federal and provincial governments are talking policy.  What the parents want to know: Are my children going to be able to get a home they can afford?

Urbanation a real estate consulting and Information Services company,released some numbers earlier today:

• New condo sales in the GTHA rose 52% year-over-year to 702 units — the first annual gain since Q3-2023, driven by the elimination of HST and bulk investor purchases.
• Sales remain 86% below the 10-year average for Q2.
• Nearly all the growth came from completed projects, where sales more than tripled to 535 units. Pre-construction sales fell 80% annually to just 50 units.
• Asking prices for completed, unsold new condos were roughly flat at $1,186 psf, a record 43% premium over resale prices of $830 psf. Actual sale prices were often well below asking.
• Combined new and resale inventory reached 12,106 units, up just 1% annually — the slowest growth in three years — as a drop in resale listings offset rising developer-held inventory.
• The new supply pipeline continues to shrink sharply, down 37% annually to 48,710 units, with no new project launches for a second straight quarter, pointing to a significantly under supplied market in the coming years.

The new condo supply pipeline continued to shrink sharply, with combined pre-construction and under-construction inventory falling to 48,710 units in Q2 — down 37% from a year earlier and a 62% plunge from the high of about 127,000 units in 2022.

As developers awaited the full rollout of the HST rebate rules, there was little change in asking prices for completed and unsold new condos, which decreased 2% annually to an average of $1,186 psf in Q2. This represented a record-wide 43% premium over average resale prices of $830 psf in new projects registered within the past three years. However, for the new condo sales that did occur in Q2, prices were generally well below asking, as some developers became more aggressive in lowering asking prices and negotiating selling prices following the HST announcement, with bulk deals transacting at prices even below resale.

Combined standing new and resale condo inventory in the GTHA totaled 12,106 units at the end of Q2, up only 1% from a year ago, the slowest pace of growth in three years. Completed, developer-held inventory rose from 4,826 units in Q1 to a record-high 5,001 units in Q2, 68% higher than a year ago. This was offset by a 21% year-over-year drop in active resale listings to a three-year low of 7,105 units — still 48% above the 10-year average, but the largest annual decline in four-and-a-half years. Combined months of supply across completed new and resale condos eased to 7.3, down from a high of 8.5 a year earlier and marking the first meaningful improvement in this measure since the current downturn began.

The pullback in resale supply has been broad-based by unit size, with smaller units also being absorbed rather than piling up, which is contrary to the often-cited narrative of a market flooded with small investor units. Units under 600 sf accounted for 20.4% of active resale listings in Q2, down from a high of 24.3% in 2024 and only modestly above the 19.6% share recorded in 2020. The breakdown of completed and unsold new condo inventory follows a very similar distribution by unit size as resale units, with 22% of units under 600 sf as of Q2. Most standing developer-held inventory (54%) is over 700 sf, with 57% of units in two-bedroom or larger layouts and an overall average unit size of 836 sf, aligning closely with broader resale demand.

As these early signs of stabilization emerge, the outlook for future supply is becoming more concerning. The new condo supply pipeline continued to shrink sharply, with combined pre-construction and under-construction inventory falling to 48,710 units in Q2 — down 37% from a year earlier and a 62% plunge from the high of about 127,000 units in 2022. With no new project launches for a second consecutive quarter, an additional 1,022 units cancelled in Q2 (bringing the running total since the start of 2024 to 11,653 units), and construction starts down to just 448 units, the pipeline is thinning quickly, pointing towards a market that will be substantially undersupplied within a few years.

  Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation: “After more than four years of decline, it’s an important signal to see new condo sales respond to the elimination of HST and investor activity. That said, this improvement is coming off an extremely low base, and pre-construction demand remains largely dormant. With virtually no new units being added to the pipeline, condo supply is set to see its largest ever decline in the coming years.”

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