Is Doug Ford prepared to call a Spring election ? All the signs suggest that is his best option

By Pepper Parr

September 3^rd, 2024

BURLINGTON, ON

At this point much of the political comment points to a Spring provincial election, however everything is very fluid.

One view is that Doug Ford does not want to wait until after the 2026 federal election which he is reported to think Pierre Poilievre will win.  Traditionally Ontario residents like to have one political party running the show federally with a different party running things provincially.

There is also a view that it would be better to get ahead of anything the RCMP might choose to do; holding an election and having the RCMP deliver some hard news is not a smart tactic.

Traditionally the police are adamant at not deliberately laying charges or arresting anyone in the months leading up to an election.

Premier Doug Ford

The Tories are raising considerable amounts of money.  The Liberals are having problems raising funds.  Some committed Liberals experiencing “buyers remorse” over the selection of Bonnie Crombie as their leader.  She will meet with her party in London on September 19^th.   It could be an uncomfortable meeting.

Crombie did put a cool million dollars of donations into the party coffers weeks after the she was elected as leader of the party. But not much since then.

Losing the Milton by-election hurt; the right candidate and a strong election team could have made that a Liberal riding provincially.  The federal Liberals hold the riding and the current MPP did have conversations with Bonnie Crombie before he resigned as a provincial Cabinet Minister to run against Adam van Koeverden.

The hope for many, who think re-electing Doug Ford would be a terrible mistake, is just how well Marit Stiles, the NDP Leader of the Opposition will manage to improve her political profile and get the recognition she has earned.  The challenge is how well she can do once an election is called.  The hope for her is that Liberals who have given up on Bonnie Crombie put their support behind the NDP.  The problem is too many people remember Bob Rae and his NDP government.

NDP Leader of the Opposition speaker to municipal leaders as an AMO conference.

Stiles has been doing a superb job as Leader of the Opposition, She gets credit for the report released by Bonnie Lysak, the provincial auditor genera, who released a devastating report on the Greenbelt land transfers that quickly became known as the Greenbelt scandal, and for the J David Wake the Provincial Integrity Commissioner report that listed names of people who made doubtful decisions and did things they should probably not have done.

The two best shots taken at the Doug Ford government were fired by Stiles.

Andrew Drummond

What does all this mean to Burlington.  Well – finding a candidate that can run a solid campaign and win would help.  At this point there isn’t even a mention of a possible NDP candidate in Burlington. When was the last time you heard anything about the Burlington New Democrats?  Andrew Drummond seems to be unelectable

Locally the Liberals are at least thinking.  Their choice last time out was unfortunate – let’s leave it at that.

Some have suggested that Mayor Meed Ward is in trouble as Mayor and might decide to run provincially as a Liberal.  She ran against Joyce Savoline in 2006 and lost then ran against Rick Craven in ward 1 – lost again.

Burlington ward 2 Councillor Lisa Kearns

The last time out provincially, the word was that the Burlington provincial Liberals were not interested in Meed Ward as a candidate. They approached ward 2 Councillor Lisa Kearns who said yes – days later she said no.  Andrea Grebenc, the then chair of the Halton District School Board trustees was interested and ran for the nomination.  Her duties as chair, a job she was very good at, limited what she could do in terms of campaigning.

Burlington MPP Natalie Pierre speaking in the Legislature

The current MPP, Natalie Pierre, hasn’t endeared herself to very many people – even some Conservatives would like to see more than the photo ops.  A number of strong local Tories are not part of the support team.

Expect both 2025 and 2026 to be important years during which citizens have to make important decisions on who should lead the city, the province and the country.  There are critical issues to be address: climate; housing, transportation and what we will have in the way of a social safety net.