By Tom Parkin
April 19th, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
Conservatives took about 220,000 more votes in both 2019 and 2021, but 36 and 41 fewer seats.
With now less than 10 days until the ballots are counted, a mood of defeat is settling over the Conservatives.
Pierre Poilievre
Their last hope was for Pierre Poilievre to score a big win in the debates to turn things around. He didn’t.
Fearing Trump comparisons, and therefore unable to unleash his inner attack dog, Poilievre was average. And he needed to be a lot better than average to move the needle.
The Conservatives are six points back in popular support, according to an average of recent polls. And they have historic weak vote efficiency. In both 2019 and 2021, Conservatives received about 220,000 more votes. But in 2019 they elected 36 fewer MPs than the Liberals; 41 fewer in 2021.
The Conservatives get big vote pile-ups in southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. But they can only win the same riding once.
Also: use Progressive Vote Guide at ProgressiveVote.ca to review ridings where the NDP is a strategic or safe vote.
Because of their lagging popular support and vote efficiency handicap, Conservatives would need to grow by almost one point every day until April 28. A surge of that scale has never happened in a federal election and there’s no hint of one happening for Pierre Poilievre now.
Question shifts to look of PM Carney’s opposition
Mark Carney responding ti Pierre Poilievre during the debate.
As the question of who will become prime minister resolves, the emerging question is about the composition of the opposition Prime Minister Mark Carney will face.
The debate showed clear patterns about who and what each opposition party will fight for in the next parliament.
Poilievre pushed to pump oil and cut taxes. He pressed on a plan to use the notwithstanding clause to lengthen the jail terms of multiple-murderers.
Singh pressed Carney over threatened cuts to health transfers, support for workers affected by Trump tariffs, closing tax haven access, and his history of profiting from rent-busting.
Yves-François Blanchet MP is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Bloc Québécois and member of Parliament for Beloeil—Chambly since 2019.
BQ leader Blanchet asked why Carney refuses to disclose his investments, as done by other leaders, and perceived intrusions into provincial jurisdiction.
Where progressive opposition can win is key question
Carney jousted with Poilievre over who would pump more oil or cut more taxes, but pivoted away from direct questions about health transfers, rent-busting, tax dodging and no disclosure. He gave no clarity about where he will cut billions to both balance the budget and pay for his capital gains tax cut.
In the last 10 days, Carney may yet avoid transparency on these questions. Being not Trump, Poilievre or Trudeau looks like it will be enough.
That makes it even more important Canadians elect as many progressive MPs as possible who will pressure Mark Carney in the Commons after this election. Helping progressive voters see where they can make that happen is the singular challenge in the final 10 days.
The NDP realized much of its agenda through the Liberals…they will get nothing with ithe Conservatives.
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NDP voters/followers will not have a voice over the next 4 years, regardless of whether a more centrist Mark Carney or Poilievre becomes PM. Why? Singh failed to pull the trigger before PM Trudeau resigned. The NDP absent Carney, in all likelihood would have been the official opposition. Now, the NDP will get 5 maybe 8 seats and no voice. That folks is nail meet Jagmeet