Ontario Liberals’ terrible fundraising suggests weaker support than polls show

By Tom Parkin

April 16, 2026

BURLINGTON, ON

Ontario Liberal polling numbers may be more a halo from Carney than a reflection of their own momentum.Ontario Liberal fundraising faulters

Fundraising results, Q1 2026

The headline Ontario polling story shows the PCs’ support has fallen, now at 39 per cent, with the leaderless Liberals at 31 per cent and Marit Stiles’ Ontario NDP at 21 per cent, according to to an Abacus poll released last week.

But first quarter fundraising was dismal for the Ontario Liberals, suggesting their polling pop may be more a halo from the Carney Liberals than reflective of their own momentum.

It’s a topic tackled in this week’s Left East to West podcast, which includes a feature interview with Nova Scotia NDP leader Claudia Chender.

OLP ran fourth in Q1 fundraising

The only independently verified fundraising numbers come from Elections Ontario, but they only include donors who have given $200 or more during the calendar year.

In the first quarter of 2026 the Ford PCs took in a massive amount, as usual. They are perfecting the cash-for-access system, a sort of policy-for-rent approach to governing, and it is paying off in power and cash.

The Liberals were nowhere close. They weren’t even second. Or third. In Q1, among the $200 plus donor crowd, the Ontario Liberals ran fourth, behind the Greens.

Among donors who have given $200 or more, the Ontario NDP raised just under $99,000 and the Ontario Liberals just below $69,000, according to Elections Ontario.

That weak result does not track with a party at 31 per cent support. And nor does their self-reported total of all donations, regardless of size.

While the Ontario NDP reported total Q1 fundraising of $750,000, the Ontario Liberals say they brought in just $423,000.

The OLP press release blamed the low numbers on Doug Ford’s new, higher fundraising caps saying “it isn’t just about fundraising numbers, it’s about fairness.” Yes, but it is also about their fundraising numbers.

The Ontario NDP statement just said “Doug Ford answers to insiders, Marit Stiles answers to people”.

Weak OLP leadership race also undercuts polls results

And this fundraising data isn’t the only contraindicator to the polling numbers. The Liberals have been weirdly unable to attract a leadership candidate other than Nate Erskine-Smith.

Erskine-Smith is the federal Liberal MP who finally made it to cabinet in the dying days of the Trudeau government, only to get bounced by Carney just a few months later. On the way out he took some very public shots at the PM. So he’s not in the big tent with the cool kids.

Now an unhappy backbench MP, Erskine-Smith has announced he wants to be nominated as the Ontario Liberal Party candidate in a Scarborough by-election as a step toward becoming Ontario Liberal leader. Erskine-Smith’s current federal seat is not in Scarborough.

And after the Ontario Liberals’ 2025 candidate said she wants to seek the nomination again, Erskine-Smith said she should back off so he could be acclaimed. That conflict has turned public with “he-said-she-said” accusations and personal attacks on Nate Erskine-Smith from other candidates.

But no one else has said they want the job of OLP leader. And that also does not track with a party polling at 31 per cent.

How much halo?

No doubt there’s some halo effect from Carney, and it’s impossible to say how much. But whatever the size, that halo is an opportunity to grab onto.

But the evidence of bad fundraising results and a weak leadership race suggests the Ontario Liberals are too disorganized to be able to seize it.