By Pepper Parr
August 15th, 2022
BURLINGTON, ON
Part 2 of a series
They were first called “hubs”; at first there were four of them but that got cut down to three when the thinkers realized that a bus terminal that couldn’t hold a dozen people was just that – a rinky dinky bus terminal that the transit people thought of closing at one point.
They went through a name change and are now called MTSA’s: Major Transit Station Area and have become the location where the bulk of the growth in the city will take place.
This was the original idea – until someone realized that the xxx was a bus terminal that couldn’t hold 12 people
By growth the consultant who prepared a report are talking about job growth and residential growth. The market analysis was undertaken to establish the context for understanding future residential and non-residential development potential and prospects within Burlington’s MTSAs.
They were focused on where people would live and where they would work – and what kind of work would be available.
“In planning for MTSAs and other strategic growth areas, municipalities need to have regard for target sectors and to accommodate mixed uses in these locations, developing high-quality urban environments that provide for a mix of live/work opportunities, along with high-order transit and access to amenities. There is also a need to advocate for a more flexible planning approach and stronger integration with planning and economic development perspectives.”
This is city building at its highest level. The conclusions the planners reach and present to Council will be used to create a housing strategy and the establishment of precincts – areas within the MTSA boundary that will accommodate different levels of intensification.
Included in that strategy will be what the city decides in wants in the way of Inclusionary Zoning – which is another way of saying the city will create and put in place rules that set out how much affordable housing is possible.
Add that that bit about affordable housing the phrase “attainable housing” – housing that people can afford to buy.
This article is part of a series on just what the impact of the MTSA’s is going to be for the city.
Let’s look at some of the numbers:
“The long-term outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (G.G.H.) The population of the G.G.H. is forecast to increase from 9.5 million in 2016 to 14.9 million in 2051.
“This represents a population increase of 5.3 million people (153,000 annually), or 1.3% annually between 2016 and 2051.
“This represents an employment increase of 2.4 million jobs (69,000 annually), or 1.2% annually between 2016 and 2051.
The Region of Halton leads in employment growth – that is expected to continue. Now housing has to be built for these people.
“With an estimated population of 614,500 as of 2021, Halton Region is expected to grow to approximately 1.1 million people by the year 2051. Between 2021 and 2051, it is estimated that over 179,000 new households will be required across the Region, largely within existing and future urban areas.
“To accommodate future residents, there is also an increasing need to develop new and innovative approaches to housing development within areas that are pedestrian oriented and transit supportive.
“The availability of housing is a key factor in attracting and retaining people and businesses to a community. In an increasingly knowledge-based environment, the ability to cultivate, retain, and attract talented workers is increasingly important.
“Attracting and retaining people of working age and their families, which is necessary to support a broad range of employment opportunities, requires a diverse housing stock.
“Halton Region had a total of 208,601 occupied residential dwelling units. In 2021, 55% of housing was comprised of low-density dwellings (single and semi-detached) compared to 19% and 26% for medium- (townhouses, rowhouses) and high-density (condominium and rental apartments) units, respectively.
“Halton Region has a strong tradition of home ownership with approximately 76% (54,540 units) of housing units defined as owner occupied.[
“Over the 2021 to 2051 period, Halton Region’s housing base is expected to increase by 175,800 units.[12] Figure 4 provides a summary of Halton Region’s forecast growth in households by primary age of maintainer for 2021 and 2051. As shown, the primary age of household maintainer is anticipated to shift to a greater share of older households, with the strongest anticipated household growth expected for those aged 75+, accounting for 25% of household growth, followed by empty nesters/young seniors (65-74 age group). On an aggregate basis, approximately 40% of household growth over the 2021 to 2051 period is expected to be in households where the primary age of maintainer is 65 or older.”
If these numbers hold – planners have their work cut out for them.
“Growth is expected to be concentrated in the 25-44 age cohort, including couples with and without children with varying levels of income. The strong population growth in the 65+ age group is anticipated to be driven by the aging of the existing population as well as in-migration from this age group. These two demographic groups represent the strongest market segment for higher-density dwellings such as apartments and condominiums.
“Historical population growth rates for Burlington in accordance with Statistics Canada Census data. For comparative purposes, historical population growth rates have also been provided for Halton Region and the Province of Ontario. As illustrated, Burlington’s population base increased from 151,000 in 2001 to 187,000 in 2021. Over the past two decades, Burlington’s population base has increased by approximately 1,800 persons or approximately 1.20% per year, exhibiting a lower growth rate than Halton Region which increased at a rate of 2.95% annually over the same period. In contrast, the population base for the Province grew at a slower rate (1.23% annually) during the same time period.”
Burlington’s growth compares poorly with the Regional numbers – the growth is taking place in the other municipalities
“The City has experienced a steady rate of Census housing growth over the past 20 years. During this period, the City’s housing base has increased by approximately 28% from 57,340 to 73,180, which represents an increase of approximately 790 housing units per year. Figure 12 summarizes housing growth between 2001 and 2021.
“Burlington currently has approximately 23,000 housing units at various stages of the planning process to potentially meet the forecast need for the short term. Of this, approximately 43% (10,000 units) is located within Burlington’s MTSAs.
- The Downtown Burlington UGC/Burlington GO MTSA has 4,046 units, while the Aldershot GO MTSA and the Appleby GO MTSA have 16% (3,554 units) and 11% (2,476 units) housing units, respectively.
- Approximately 83% and 14% of the MTSAs’ housing units are in high-rise and mid-rise buildings, respectively. A limited share of the MTSAs’ housing unit supply is in low-rise buildings.
“Strong population growth is expected in Burlington over the next 30 years with the population forecast to increase by 38% to 265,000 by 2051, as presented in Figure 28. Over the same period, Burlington’s employment base is expected to expand to 125,000 by 2051, a 27% increase. With respect to housing growth, Burlington’s housing base is forecast to increase by 47% to 107,765 by 2051.”
“The forecast housing growth over the 2021 to 2051 period, the majority (80% representing 26,766 units) is expected to be in the form of high-density units (apartments), followed by 11% for medium density (rowhouses) and 7% for low density (singles/semis). An additional 2% of housing is expected to be in the form of accessory units.”
Those percentages are close to astounding
“A broad range of considerations related to demographics, economics and socio- economics is anticipated to impact population and employment growth trends throughout the Region of Halton and Burlington over the coming decades. These factors will not only affect the rate and magnitude of growth but will also influence the form, density and location of residential and non-residential development.”
All the planners have to do is get it right.
Asking the people in Burlington what they think – may not be the smartest thing the planners could do. People don’t like change – asking for informed comments or putting together a focus group could work.
Whichever – the Burlington we have and know today will begin to fade away within a decade.
The planners haven’t got it right so far Pepper. What makes you think things will be any different going forward? In the words of Albert Einstein “The definition of insanity is keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result”.
Asking the people what they think can actually work. What is lacking in the consultation process is the ability to hear what is actually being said, and then respond accordingly. I’ve attended dozens of public forums and consultations over the past ten years. I am continually amazed at the inability of City of Burlington officials to actually heed what is being said. It stands in stark contrast to the responsiveness of Region of Halton employees who not only hear, but also, actually offer insightful and informed feedback.
Burlington does not need 30 storey condos. It is the wrong type of development, and it isn’t conducive to residents with young children or multi-generational households. We certainly don’t need them at Oval Court next to the Appleby GO station. There is already serious traffic congestion at the Appleby/Fairview intersection (another problem City planners are unable to fix!), and it will only get worse shoe-horning another 7,000+ residents into a development where there is only one road into the complex (N.B. The City has already said it won’t permit road expansion through Sherwood Park).