Rivers on the return of the turbines to the Russians; breaking his own sanctions, albeit indirectly.

By Ray Rivers

July 23, 2022

BURLINGTON, ON

OPINION

As the Russians were marching into Ukraine, Canada’s PM, Mr. Trudeau reassured the President of Ukraine that Canada had his back. Mr. Zelenskyy, of course, had heard this before. Every time his government had asked for defensive weapons following Putin’s first invasion, they would receive a belly full of verbal support. But instead of arms the Ukrainians would be given palliatives, and more helmets and night goggles. The prevailing western notion was that supplying anything more useful in a conflict might encourage Russia’s Mr. Putin to invade again.

But he invaded anyways. And as the Russians were massing on the border, their intention dead clear, Canada, with great fanfare, finally flew over some sniper rifles. It was too little and way too late to help save lives and prevent the genocide that accompanied the deadly invasion. But Trudeau told Mr. Zelensky that he had something better than artillery in his quiver. Stiff sanctions would stop Putin in his tracks.

Russian turbine being refurbished by Siemens in Montreal. It was being held under a sanctions protocol.

The Nord Stream 1 is a natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, built by the Russians a decade ago to bypass the traditional pipeline which runs through Ukraine. It requires compressors driven by turbine engines to move the gas. One of those turbines, belonging to Russian state-owned company, Gazprom, the largest gas company in the world and largest corporation in Russia, was being refurbished in Montreal. That made it subject to Canadian sanctions and prevented its return to Russia.

But Gazprom wanted their turbine back. Gazprom uses six turbines to help move gas through this pipe but it is a huge company with more pipelines and turbines than you can shake a stick at. So this was less about that particular turbine than trying to get Canada to break its stiff sanctions. This was diplomatic blackmail and a weaponizing of gas exports.

Mr. Putin had said that if he didn’t get the turbine back he would shut down the pipeline, which supplies the EU with something like 40% of its gas. And to make the point he did shut it down, claiming it was for maintenance. The Germans realized this was nothing more than diplomatic blackmail, but they needed to replenish their gas supplies for the upcoming winter, so they asked Canada to return the turbine.

Trudeau, stuck between a rock and a hard place, did some skating. He sent the turbine to Germany, knowing full well that the Germans would return it to Gazprom. He justified his action by claiming he was keeping a NATO ally on side. But he was breaking his own sanctions, albeit indirectly. Energy is Russia’s largest source of export earnings and that helps finance Russia’s massive military and its war effort.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with the German Chancellor

The trade off was between helping keep Germans warm this winter or potentially slowing down Russia’s war and saving lives in Ukraine. Despite all his righteous indignation at Russia’s invasion, Trudeau had allowed Putin to break what was supposed to be a wall of stiff sanctions, turning it into more of a slippery slope. And the question is what he and other western leaders will do the next time Putin comes up with anther blackmail scheme?

The Ukrainian president was furious that the leader of the country with the second largest concentration of Ukrainian Diaspora would bow to such Russian blackmail. The Canadian and World Ukrainian congresses have decided to sue Canada for breaking its own law. And back home the opposition parties have also called out the Liberal leader.

Germany is at the centre of this political tempest. Despite being cautioned on the dangers of becoming so dependent on Russian gas exports, former Chancellor Merkel did just that. She started phasing out the country’s nuclear power plants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster and replacing that and the coal plants with Russian gas. Germany does get an impressive amount of its energy from wind power and has a goal to become 100% renewable, but it is currently more reliant than ever on gas – and much of it from Russia. So there is no question that Germany will just transfer the turbine to Gazprom, despite it’s own and EU sanctions.

No discussion of fossil fuels should be concluded without reference to climate change and global warming. The irony of the moment is that Europe is in the midst of a dangerous heat wave that is enveloping the continent. And while Europeans have been global leaders in reducing their carbon emissions, they are still married to gas.

Nobody is suggesting the best way to get off the fossil fuel addiction is to go cold turkey, by turning off the tap. But that could happen and it might be the silver lining to Putin’s weaponizing of gas exports. Since the invasion Germany has already reduced its use of gas somewhat, and is seriously moving towards carbon free hydrogen in addition to further developing its renewable energy options.

Russian tanks preparing to roll into Ukraine

Russia’s war in Ukraine will not end until Putin is gone. But before that happens Putin may well follow up on his threats and cut off the gas supplies to the EU anyway – turbine or not. And that would make Canada and Germany look foolish for having violated their high principles and caved in to the demands of the Russian tyrant by sending back that darn turbine.

It is a complicated story and it may be a turbine ‘tempest-in-a-tea pot’ but it is instructive. How did Mr. Putin, a terrorist and war criminal whose country has a GDP the size of Italy, manage to successfully blackmail western nations and make a mockery of the international sanctions regime?

Nobody should underestimate him.