Rivers on: Turning the Page in Canada

By Ray Rivers

March 10th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

My opponent, Pierre Poilievre, is a lifelong politician who worships at the altar of the free market, despite never having earned a paycheque or made a payroll. His reflex is always to cut and destroy. (Mark Carney)

It was an impressive victory for Canada’s new PM designate on Sunday.  All four candidates were clearly qualified for the job but Liberals voted overwhelmingly (86%) for Carney.  After all, these are troubled times.  Canadians are feeling threatened and insecure because of the economic and political assault from south of the border.

In a crisis, the public generally prefers electoral stability and the status quo.  And that tends to work for incumbents.  It’s why Doug Ford, who has a miserable record in managing the province but cast himself as captain Canada, won his election so convincingly.  And he has not disappointed in his defence of the province and country.

Churchill became British PM as WWII was underway and Roosevelt was elected for an unprecedented third term when it became clear that the US was about to enter the war.  What Canada needs now is competence and experience, not a political attack dog, as it navigates the path we’ve been forced onto.  Globalization is dead, and so is USMCA/NAFTA.  Canada needs to rebuild our national economy and that will require public as well as private investment as we strive to once again make and buy Canadian.

Brian Mulroney

Blame Brian Mulroney for selling out our industries in the hope that some kind of free trade deal with the US would make us better off.  But that deal was made some forty years ago and most Canadians believe it had been working – until now.  But that experiment in the economic theory of comparative advantage hollowed out our manufacturing sector, leaving us little choice but to become as reliant on trade in raw materials as were our forefathers – hewers of wood, and drawers of oil.

Surrendering our once robust manufacturing sector has made us vulnerable to the vagaries of international markets, as we saw with the supply issues and the ensuing inflation during the pandemic.  The US and Europe have also realized this, perhaps one of the reasons all EU members have still not ratified the Canada/EU trade agreement.

And now Trump is completely overturning the gaming table and tearing up USMCA, all the while whistling America first.   But this is not a game.  Trump is determined to end non-tariff access to US markets, in the interest of returning manufacturing jobs to America and using tariff revenue to finance his promised income tax cuts.

The US president is not likely to change course now and has already warned the US public to expect inflation and a recession as they experience this transition.   And Canada’s transition threatens to be even worse without proper guidance.   Then there is all the other nonsense pouring out of the Donald’s mouth – the hostility and the expansionist threats that is unnerving Canadians and all of America’s one time friends and allies.

It was a happy night for everyone – will we see a repeat in the next 60 to 90 days?

So over 150,000 Liberals cast their votes for a new leader in response to the public’s demand for a change from Mr. Trudeau.  And they put their fate in the hands of someone with impeccable credentials and very credible skills at a time when this country needs exactly that kind of leadership.  As Carney said in his victory speech, Canada needs a strategic plan to deal with the inevitable fallout from the end of free trade, not political slogans.

Trudeau gave one of his best speeches as he stepped down.  He was positive, gracious and passionate and sat emotionless as he watched the new leader designate promise to end Trudeau’s signature carbon tax.  Still, Trudeau’s best moments came in his two recent addresses to Canadians outlining Canada’s immediate responses to Trump’s 25% tariffs.  I have never been prouder to be a Canadian as I watched our prime minister stand up for Canada in no uncertain terms.

Canadians will likely be in an election in a matter of weeks.  Some will complain about having an election in the midst of a crisis.  But we survived a federal election in the midst of the pandemic and the recent Ontario election was held in one of the coldest and snowy winters in recent memory.  And given the political temperature on Parliament Hill, we should expect the federal election closer to April than its October due date.

Kim Campbell

John Turner

Kim Campbell and John Turner provide a case study of the perils for a governing party changing horses at the last minute before a horse race.  Hopefully Carney will learn from their mistakes.  Canadians demanded turning the page on its PM and his priorities for the country – and the Liberal Party has responded.

Ray Rivers, a Gazette Contributing Editor, writes regularly applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking.  Rivers was once a candidate for provincial office in Burlington.  He was the founder of the Burlington citizen committee on sustainability at a time when climate warming was a hotly debated subject.   Ray has a post graduate degree in economics that he earned at the University of Ottawa.  Tweet @rayzrivers

Background links:

Tariff War –  Trudeau on Tariffs