Rivers take a break from a vacation to opine on the federal election candidates - he can't see a winner yet

Rivers 100x100By Ray Rivers

August 7, 2015

BURLINGTON, ON

Some people have no respect.

Rivers goes fishing  NZ - Jan 2015

There was some serious fishing being done …

Imagine the PM dropping the writ, calling the federal election, while I was taking a break from my column. And this, the longest federal campaign since we first kicked the tires on a project called Canada, back in the 1800’s. But it’s all legal, the PM made sure of that when he penned it into what Tom Mulcair calls the ‘(Un)Fair Elections Act’.

Well, why not change the rules of the game, when you can? And that means we’ll need to brace ourselves for an eleven week blitz of attack ads. Though I wish the Tories would get some new material as I can repeat in my sleep how ‘Justin’s is just not ready’. That inane but obviously effective attack ad has contributed to Mr. Trudeau falling from first to third place in the opinion polls over the last few months.

The eleven week campaign is about money – who has it and who doesn’t. Mr. Harper’s war chest is greater than all the other parties combined. Whither the money – well it’s clear that the wealthiest Canadians know where their bread is buttered. And since the campaigns receive post-election rebates the tax payer will end up reimbursing over half. With this newly concocted eleven week campaign that will be twice as much as in the past.

Federal debate - Rogers

The four federal candidates in the first – and perhaps only debate the public will see.

Policy wonks might look at the longer campaign as an opportunity for a more substantial discussion of the direction our leaders would navigate and the destinations they envision. There are big differences, at least between the Tories and the other parties, something which should become even more evident over the course of the debates.

Except that kind of broader discussion is not likely to happen. Mr. Harper will not participate in the traditional national leaders’ debate, and if there is no Harper, then there is no Mulcair, and no debate. So there was an early one-off debate last night, hosted by MacLeans and Rogers, which I found in its entirety on the lonely City TV.

elizabeth-may

Elizabeth May – Green Party

And the two hour event was, I believe, one of the better debates of late. Twitter feed indicated that Green Party leader Elizabeth May had been the star performer, calm and cool and to the point. Of course, as driver in a party with still only one passenger seat, she had the least to lose and most to gain. But short of a miracle, she’d need more like 11 years rather than eleven weeks to develop the party infrastructure to win enough seats to form a government.

The NDP’s Mulcair and Liberal’s Trudeau delivered decent performances, avoiding much of the annoying cross talk that has too often characterized these shows. Trudeau nailed Mulcair for introducing a bill, defying the Supreme Court’s decision that a 51% plurality is not sufficient for ‘Quebexit’ from Canada, claiming he was bowing to separatists in his Quebec wing. In response Mulcair made a passionate defence of his lifelong dedication to a united Canada.

Mulcair with NDP candidate in Spadina

Thomas Mulcair, on the right – NDP

And it didn’t take long for Mulcair to embarrass Trudeau, in turn, for his limited support of the Tory’s anti-terrorism law (Bill C51), widely condemned for its police state provisions which override personal rights and freedoms in the name of security. Trudeau conceded naivety in one of the more touchingly sincere moments of the debate, and claimed he’d remove the objectionable portions if elected.

Stephen Harper spent his time trying to defend his government’s record, boasting about how well Canada is doing, supported by, what Elizabeth May termed, ‘cherry-picked’ facts. In the end Mulcair forced him to admit that Canada was indeed entering a recession, May wiped the floor with him over climate change and other environmental policies and Trudeau and Mulcair both savaged him over sending our troops into action in Iraq and Syria without an international mandate, strategy or exit plan. Harper took the attacks seemingly in stride, and kept coming back to his script that all is well – though he must have been hurting inside.

So, it is uncertain that there will be any more debates before we get to vote on October 19th. And one can hardly blame the PM for not wanting to face this gang and explain his failures as CEO of Canada before another TV audience. And time, in this long campaign, is not on his side as people start hurting from the latest recession. Plus, you can bet the other leaders would double-down on the PM, next time around.

Harper - fists

Stephen Harper – Conservative party

But then there is so much to double down on, even if only on the economy. After eviscerating Canada’s environment laws in order to expedite oil pipeline construction, he failed to get a single pipeline built. After slashing public service in so many critical areas he still ran 8 years of deficit, including the current year.

Having neglected the rest of Canada’s industrial base in favour of Alberta’s oil sands, the tumble in oil prices has lopped over 25% off our dollar and driven the economy into its second recession in less than a decade – the only nation to do so in the G7. Hell, even leading US presidential candidate and fellow conservative Donald Trump would fire him.

Trudeau Justin

Justin Trudeau – Liberal party

Justin Trudeau gave the most eloquent summary of the four leaders, claiming his difference with the PM was about their vision of the future. Harper came to the debate armed with an argument that the state of the nation was good and we should stay the course. Trudeau came with the expectation that we can and should be doing ‘better’.

 

Rivers-direct-into-camera1-173x300

Ray Rivers writes weekly on both federal and provincial politics, applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking. Rivers was a candidate for provincial office in Burlington where he ran as a Liberal against Cam Jackson in 1995, the year Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution swept the province.

Background links:

Canadian Dollar

Deficit  

Debates

More Debates?

Long Election Campaign

Harper’s Economy

Harper’s Spin

Return to the Front page
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

7 comments to Rivers take a break from a vacation to opine on the federal election candidates – he can’t see a winner yet

  • ZP

    Thank you for clarifying your position and your status Mr. Rivers. That’s all I suggested you do. Your notion that someone has “simply tried to discredit” you is very unfortunate. In that light, I would encourage you to embrace, and pay tribute to observant readers.

  • Ray Rivers

    Dear ZP – Be advised that I stepped down as President of the Flamborough-Glanbrook Federal Liberal Electoral District Association on June 25, 2015. I do not have control over those updating the web-site. But you already know from the column footing that I have been active with the federal and liberal parties and that I ran as a Liberal, provincially, back in 1995.

    I write about issues as I see them, if they seem to be more supportive of one political party or group than another, you are free to interpret that as you see fit. And in that light I would encourage you to use the commentary space the publisher of the Gazette provides – to agree, argue with or attack the substance of the columns I write, rather than simply trying to discredit the person writing them.

  • ZP

    “Editor’s note: Mr. Rivers resigned his position several weeks ago and is no longer the member of any federal or provincial political constituency association; it was a condition of his continuing with his column.”

    Kudos to the Gazette for taking that position and bringing it to light for the readers. Mr. Rivers is still listed as President for Flamborough Glanbrook Liberal riding association on their website as of today.

    Perhaps Mr. Rivers would like to clarify his own position before, during and after the election?

  • ZP

    Since the campaigning is now underway, it would be prudent for Mr. Rivers to disclose his position as president for a federal Liberal riding association.

    Editor’s note: Mr. Rivers resigned his position several weeks ago and is no longer the member of any federal or provincial political constituency association; it was a condition of his continuing with his column.

  • Bob Zarichansky

    While Ms. May alone showed an adroit comprehension of the issues, her path to win is almost impossible. This contrasted to Mr. Mulcair’s struggles with a seeming expectation of anointment and Mr. Trudeau’s shyness to expose the depth of the sins of the Prime Minister.
    History will record the Prime Minister as a toxic parasite who held power without an ability or inclination to work with others in the governance of this multi-tiered country. Just like a pathogen, he has attacked almost every facet of Canadian life in an effort to bring forth the fantasies of an American Tea Party, which even there is considered too repulsive to hold power. After almost a decade in power, he has left Canada $150 Billion more in debt and substantially diminished in International expectations. His re-election would be a further mistake as the parasite will suck out what is left of the core and spirit of this country leaving only a beleaguered nation bereft of wealth and hope of an imminent recovery.

  • Gary

    Clearly, the winner was the one who least matters, Elizabeth May. By showing up at the podium sober and not making stupid cracks about Omar Khadr she had the most to gain. And finally we had a debate without Gilles Duceppe and his odious Bloc Q. Party. Although, I like him personally and consider him a good debater, I never understood why the MSM thought they had to include the Bloc.

  • Fred Pritchard FCPA, FCGA

    A good debate overall. The moderator allowed two many lies by Harper to go unchallenged. And Lizzy should stop referring to Harpo as PM, he is not my PM, just some MP from Calgary.

    Now you see why Harpo doesn’t want to participate in any more debates, he has a terrible record, and doesn’t actually like being held to account. In fact, while Justin likes meeting and talking with Canadians, Harper only tolerates us every four years, then goes back to ignoring what Canadians what and moves forward with his views without care what 90% of Canadians think.

    Tick tock Steve, your time us coming to an end. Watch Harpo fill the Senate with party thugs a couple of days before the vote when he finally realizes that he is going to lose the election.