That Liberal 8 point lead is not cast in stone - more than 35 days to go

By Staff

March 25th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

It is only the end of Day 1 – so let’s not get too excited.

Angus Reid has the Liberal lead over CPC at eight points, but is Carney’s house of dreams built on concrete or sand?

Liberal supporters continue to express less commitment to their party of choice than CPC voters

As party leaders travel across the country on the campaign hustings, the Liberal plane appears to have more lift than those of their political rivals.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Liberals’ turnaround continues to climb in elevation, boosting the party to an eight-point lead (46% to 38%) over the Conservatives.

The shift took place in just two weeks.

The governing party’s rise has been driven by the collapse of the NDP vote – now standing at seven per cent. Half (50%) of 2021 NDP voters plan on voting for the Liberals if the election were today.

The Liberals have also benefitted from a renewed popularity in Quebec – half (49%) of Quebecers say they plan to vote Liberal – and especially in Montreal, where they garner two-thirds (64%) support. This has come at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, who find their support nearly halved from December (11% to 6%) and suffering from a flight of 2021 voters (23% intend to vote Liberal).

Changes like this are truly astounding. Canada has probably never seen a shift this steep in such a short period of time. These are just Montreal area voters.

There is also no doubt that the switch from the tremendously unpopular leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the much-more liked Mark Carney has played a significant role in the Liberals’ rise from their support ditch. Approaching half (46%) of Canadians say their opinion of Carney has improved in recent weeks, as a majority (54%) view him favourably. He is also the only national party leader who has a net positive rating on both those metrics.

In a sea of green flags for the Liberals, a red one looms large. The Conservatives continue to hold an advantage in voter commitment. Three-quarters (72%) of those who would support Pierre Poilievre’s party say they are firmly committed to that choice, compared to the half (51%) of Liberal voters who say the same.

While support for the Conservatives has certainly fallen from its peak seen in December, the above data is perhaps evident that the party has a high floor, while Liberal support may or may not be at the crest of the wave.

More Key Findings:

• Three-quarters (72%) of Canadians describe this election as “way more important” than 2021’s. Typically, Canadians are more likely to say the current election is more important than the previous one, but not at this rate. In 2021, 35 per cent described that year’s election as “way more important” than 2019’s; 43 per cent in 2019 said that election was “way more important” than 2015’s.

• 

  The rate at which this data changes in the next 10 days will tell where this election is likely to go.

  The Liberals have doubled or nearly doubled their support in the country’s three largest cities from December. In Metro Vancouver, vote intention for the Liberals has risen from 27 per cent to 50 per cent in that time. In the downtown core of Toronto and the outer ring, it has risen from 27 per cent to 56 per cent and 25 per cent to 52 per cent respectively. Liberal vote intention has grown from one-third (34%) in Montreal in December to 64 per cent now.

• Current NDP (58%) and Bloc (63%) supporters are less likely to describe this election as ““way more important” than the 2021 campaign than likely CPC (76%) or Liberal (79%) voters.