By Staff
September 24th, 2024
BURLINGTON, ON
Content picked up from Queen’s Park Observer
Bonnie Crombie: Can she pull it off? Or will beer in the corner store be all Doug Ford needed to win?
POLL WATCH: The latest horse race numbers, via Mainstreet Research, suggest — surprise, surprise! — DOUG FORD and the PCs would blow their rivals out of the water if an election were held today. Among decided and leaning voters: 38 per cent would pick the PCs, 28 per cent would vote for the Liberals and BONNIE CROMBIE, a paltry 16 per cent would back MARIT STILES and the NDP, while five per cent want the Greens and MIKE SCHREINER and another five per cent want an alternative. Of note: Nine per cent of folks are still up for partisan grabs — they’re undecided.
Speaking of potential elections, it’s the Globe and Mail’s turn to take a stab at the snap vote speculation. Notable tidbit: “Speaking on a panel at a recent forum in Toronto for political professionals, pollster NICK KOUVALIS, a key adviser to Ontario’s PCs, said Mr. Ford ‘may go early’ after announcing a big new initiative in the coming fall economic statement or spring budget. But he also suggested the early-election talk was a PC strategy to keep opposition parties off balance, forcing them to spend money and recruit candidates when they are behind in the polls.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with Stephen Colbert
From the Gazette – For those who watched Stephen Colbert interviewing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last night – oooh what a terribly week performance. He will need to up his game if he expects the Liberal Party to be returned to office – with what we saw a minority government would be a stretch.
There are two factors that will play a significant role in the outcome of the next provincial election.
The first is the regional breakdown and distribution of seats. There are huge swaths of this province that aren’t going to vote for the PCs (e.g. Toronto, Hamilton, Niagara, K-W, London, Northern Ontario, Ottawa), and a lot has to do with the handling of local issues (e.g. hospital closures in Niagara; the handling of the greenbelt issue; etc.). Many of those non-Conservative ridings have high profile MPPs who are closely aligned with their constituents’ needs, and have built up a loyal base of support (e.g. Wayne Gates in Niagara Falls; Catherine Fife in Kitchener; Mike Schreiner in Guelph). Most PC MPPs could walk in a room and no one would recognize them.
The second factor will be voter turnout. Those that detest Ford won’t be hard to get out to the polls. I suspect a good chunk of PC voters will either stay home because of apathy, or think the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Love for Doug Ford is about 1/4 of an inch thick.
My sense is that antagonism towards Ford runs a lot deeper, and is far more pervasive, than the polls suggest. Also, the polls are often based on telephone surveys, and we know how many households don’t have landlines anymore, not to mention the number of us who screen calls.
What are the polls saying about an election in Ontario complete with a non sequitur of our PM on Colbert? No idea.
Stiles comes across as a Shrew .All criticism and no real proposals.