By Ray Rivers
June 21st, 2023
BURLINGTON, ON
On Monday four federal by-elections were held and the results were much as anyone might have guessed. Nothing changed except that four new MPs will take their seats in Parliament.
Marc Garneau’s former riding in Montreal was retained by the Liberals as was that of the late Jim Carr, in Winnipeg. In that case Carr’s son kept the riding for the Grits. And the Tories retained their hold in rural Manitoba to replace Candice Bergen who threw in the towel. Ontario’s Oxford country also stayed Tory though former Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, called his party on dirty tricks and ended up supporting the Liberal candidate.
Dave McKenzie – Oxford in Ontario
Ben Carr, Winnipeg South, MB
So what did we learn from these by-elections? Not much. These ridings were about as safe for their respective parties as any in the country. It was a test of tribal loyalty for the most part. National polling indicates that Canadians are getting tired of the Trudeau government, but that would probably be just as true for any federal government after 8 years in power. Tired or not the 51 year young Trudeau heir has promised to lead his party into the next general election, which could come at any time – despite his deal with Mr. Singh to keep him in power until 2025.
Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre – they will face each other in the next federal eleection. When? That’s the big question.
If the public is getting weary of the Liberals, that was not the message that anyone could take from the by-elections. If anything Mr. Trudeau’s party did better than expected, including a relatively close run in true blue Oxford. And recall that sitting governments normally suffer in mid-term elections as disgruntled voters are free to vent their dissatisfaction without upsetting the political apple cart. But that didn’t happen.
City folk generally prefer the Liberals while the Tories tend to dominate in farm country. It’s always been like that. The exceptions are when the public decides it’s time to kick the bums out as we did with the Mulroney crowd or Pierre eventually. And of course there are the times when some bright light inspires the masses to cross partisan lines, as was the case with both of the Trudeaus in their days.
Anna Gainey in Quebec – Branden Leslie in Manitoba
In addition to the urban/rural divide there is the east/west split, which today has been spirited mostly by the Alberta political mafia. Of course it’s really only anti-Trudeau. But it can’t be smart to be underrepresented federally even if you hate the leader’s guts. So an ongoing Liberal presence in that Manitoba riding which they nailed should be looked at as just a blessing in disguise.
And that Winnipeg South riding for some reason had an incredible number of independent candidates, each getting little more than their own votes back. Talk about democracy gone berserk. Did these folks think they were running for mayor of Toronto?
The Tories are rejoicing that their almost leader only a little while ago, Maxime Bernier, suffered another set back in trying to get his so-called People’s Party of Canada into the hallowed halls of Parliament, finishing second against the real Conservative. But he had a pretty radical or reactionary or, some might just say rubbish, platform, so go figure.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – reaching for a fourth term?
Don’t go looking at these four by-elections as some sort of prescription for the big one yet to come. There are no tea leaves here, no foreboding of fortune or failure for Mr. Trudeau or Mr. Poilievre as they prepare their cannons for the big fight yet to come. This is just what we get in a Canada divided, more than ever, and mostly along tribal lines.
Ray Rivers, a Gazette Contributing Editor, writes regularly applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking. Rivers was once a candidate for provincial office in Burlington. He was the founder of the Burlington citizen committee on sustainability at a time when climate warming was a hotly debated subject. Ray has a post graduate degree in economics that he earned at the University of Ottawa. Tweet @rayzrivers
Background:
Election Results – Trudeau’s Next Election – An Interpretation –
Ray’s categorization of modern Canadian politics as “tribal” is insightful. You only have to look south of the border to see where this leads. Or for a more deadly example, to Africa, the continent of “tribes with flags”. We need to start electing real leaders, and do it soon. And this will take electors who can somehow see beyond their own selfish interests to a greater good. Pipe dream?