Musical chairs being played at both the federal and provincial governments

By Pepper Parr

February 6th, 2026

BURLINGTON, ON

OPINION

There are times when you need a scorecard to understand who is going to run for office – the why is rarely explained.

Doly decided Ottawa was nicer than Toronto. House of Commons appealed to her.

Doly Begum, who was Deputy Leader of the provincial New Democratic Party.

She had a very close working relationship with Leader of the Opposition Maris Stiles.

Begum was the member of Provincial Parliament (MPP) representing Scarborough Southwest for the Ontario New Democratic Party from 2018 to 2026, serving as a deputy leader of the Ontario NDP from 2022 to 2026, until she resigned her seat to run as a Liberal in the federal seat in that constituency.

Bill Blair will become a High Commissioner.

Doly saw a better offer and decided to run for the federal seat Scarborough West) that was going to be vacant when Bill Blair, a former Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair is made High Commissioner for Canada in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, which is the title used for what is essentially an Ambassador.

A by-election would have to be called to replace Dolly in the Scarborough West federal seat.

Becoming Premier of Ontario appeals to Nate.

Nathan Erskine Smith, (Nate) is currently the MP for Beaches East York had run for the leadership of the provincial Liberal Party.  He was beaten by Bonnie  Crombie. While leader of the provincial Liberals Bonnie couldn’t get herself elected and turned out to be less than what the Liberals wanted as a leader.  She resigned.  The provincial Liberals now needed a new leader.

Nate had run for the job before and was keen on running again; he wasn’t doing all that well as a federal Liberal.

Nate, was in the first federal Cabinet formed by Mark Carney when he was made Liberal Leader. When Carney called the federal election in 2025 and won, he dropped Nate from Cabinet.

The Nate nose was very much out of joint. He thought he had a very strong relationship with Carney.

By running for the Scarborough West provincial seat, that would make him a member of the provincial party (assuming he wins) and lining him up for another run at the provincial party leadership which would make Nate Premier of the province – should he win.

Nate isn’t the only person looking for a different arrangement of the seats in the House of Commons.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is betting that he can pull of getting a majority government.

Mark Carney is just one seat short of having a majority.  A majority would mean the federal Liberals would not have to constantly worry about a federal election being called.

Chrystia Feeeland: It is what it is.

Chrystia Freeland resigned (had to) making her University Rosedale seat due for a by election.

These by-elections are expensive – but that isn’t a concern to the politicians looking for the most comfortable seat in the House of Commons or at Queen’s Park.

Am I being cynical here?  I’m a journalist – we are supposed to be cynical.

And the public should rise up on its hind legs and start biting some bums.

There are likely going to be a few other by-elections.  There are people Prime Minister Mark Carney wants to move out of his government and bring in people a little younger and more in tune with what he is setting out to do with the country.

With a majority government, he rids himself of  Pierre Poilievre who by now should realize that his political future is stalled for at least the next seven years