By Pepper Parr
September 9th, 2024
BURLINGTON, ON
OPINION
For the political junkies out there – the times could not be better.
The American presidential race, along with the races in each state for Electoral College Votes, is equal to top of the line LSD.
The federal election that could put the leadership of the country in the hands of the Conservative Party that I believe would do close to irreparable harm to the country and to the environment could take place very soon – well ahead of the expected date of 2025.
The race at the provincial level has actually started – no one has told the public yet.
Internationally there has to be an election in Israel at some point – and then the continuation of the trial that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces can take place. The impact in the United States of that trial will depend on who becomes the President of the United States.
In Ontario the most recent polling results from Abacus Research and commentary from Tom Parkin on those numbers will keep the political chattering class going for at least a week.
Study the numbers and let us know what you think.
NDP has access to largest anti-Poilievre swing vote, poll shows
Number of voters who would swing behind NDP to stop Poilievre is 50% larger than the group willing to vote Liberal to stop him
When the public gets to hear what Poilievre will do to environmental issues and the number of programs in place now: dental, pharmacare, child care – time of course will tell.
To stop Pierre Poilievre, 55 per cent of current Liberal, Green or Bloc supporters would “definitely” or “probably” swing their support to Jagmeet Singh’s NDP if they were best positioned, according to the most recent poll from Abacus Research.
The NDP’s potential swing group, which represents 17 per cent of the Canadian electorate, would boost the NDP within close range of the poll-leading Conservatives.
The NDP’s potential anti-Poilievre momentum is more than 50 per cent larger than the group open to following the Liberals to stop Poilievre. Only 11 per cent of Canadians drawn from current NDP, Green or Bloc supporters would definitely or probably vote Liberal to stop Poilievre.
Majority of Greens, Liberals would switch to NDP
My personal view is the Justin Trudeau can beat Pierre Poilievre if only because he is the lesser of two evils. But let us be clear Trudeau has made a lot of mistakes and people are angry.
Among Green supporters, 57 per cent would definitively or probably switch to the NDP to stop Poilievre, but only 36 per cent would switch to the Liberals.
For Bloc supporters, 36 per cent could swing to the NDP to stop Poilievre while 42 per cent could move to the Liberals.
And while 59 per cent of Liberals could swing to the NDP to stop Poilievre, only 50 per cent of NDP supporters are willing to make the same move for the Liberals.
Ending deal helps NDP access pool of voters “negatively affiliated” with Conservatives
The same poll found 40 per cent of current Conservative voters, representing 17 per cent of the electorate, are “negatively affiliated” to the Conservatives. For this group, their primary vote motivation is a dislike for the Trudeau Liberals rather than liking the Poilievre Conservatives.
In contrast, 79 per cent of NDP supporters are motivated by liking Singh’s NDP, rather than disliking another party or leader.
Will Jagmeet Singh make the same mistakes Thomas Mulcair made?
Jagmeet Singh, in breaking his association with the Trudeau Liberals, may now be better able to access this 17 per cent of voters with the Conservatives for anti-Liberal reasons.
Switching three of those 17 points to the NDP and adding its swing vote would pull the NDP into a tie with the Conservatives, with both just below likely majority territory.
Simultaneously coalescing an anti-Poilivre vote and peeling away some negatively affiliated Conservatives presents a tangible if narrow pathway for the NDP to stop the Poilievre Conservatives, a pathway blocked for the Liberals, antipathy for whom is a major component of Poilievre’s success.
Tom Parkin is a principal with Impact Strategies.
Salt with Pepper is the musings, reflections and opinions of the publisher of the Burlington Gazette, an online newspaper that was formed in 2010 and is a member of the National Newsmedia Council.
Beg to differ Pepper, but irreparable harm is currently being perpetrated by the Trudeau era non Liberal party. South of the border DJT did the same to the Republican Party. High time we started to elect the party rather than the personality.
The underlying poll for this data appears to be here
https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-august-2024/
Here are some quotes:
“Conservatives lead by 17 as 4 in 10 federal Conservative supporters say their vote is more about disliking PM Trudeau and the Liberals than liking Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.”
“In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre remain in the net favourable territory. 40% of Canadians have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre, while 35% have a negative impression, for a net score of +5.”
“In our last survey, 37% had a negative impression of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, the highest we have recorded. Today, impressions have improved slightly, although the shift remains within the margin of error, as 35% have a negative impression. Positive impressions hold at 33%, for a net score sore of -2.”
Distilled: Poilievre negative 35%, Singh negative 37%
Finally what I can find on switching to the NDP is related to “current Liberal, Green and BQ” only.
“Interestingly when we asked the likelihood of current Liberal, Green and BQ supporters voting NDP, if it became clear that the NDP had the best chance of stopping the Conservatives from winning the election, we find that 11% of committed voters or 35% of Liberal, Green, and BQ supporters would probably vote NDP, while 6% of the committed electorate or 20% of Liberal, Green, and BQ supporters would definitely vote NDP. If the definitely and probably groups did switch to the NDP, the NDP vote share would rise from 18% to 35%, 7-points behind the Conservatives.”
There is a lot of data to interpret. As the article states the data “presents a tangible if narrow pathway for the NDP”. I guess microscopic can be called narrow.