Race for the Burlington seat is still very tight. Undecided voters quite large

By Staff

May 23rd, 2022



Data collected locally suggests that the Burlington seat is still very much up for grabs.

Jason Octavo, a Sheridan College Journalism student about to graduate this year, has been spending hours outside supermarket and LCBO stores – inside malls and in Spencer Smith Park. North and south of the QEW.

By the time the survey work is completed he will have interviewed more than 750 asking the following questions:

Question 1: Do you know there’s going to be an election in June?
Question 2: Do you know anything about the issues? 

Question 3: Are you going to vote (if not, why)?
Question 4: Would you like to say who you will vote for?

We have added a 5th question: Is there a political party or candidate that you are favouring?

Are the numbers relevant, do they mean anything?  They are certainly quite different than the province wide numbers where the Progressive Conservatives have a clear lead.

That province wide sentiment is quite a bit different than what is taking place in Burlington.

Impressive data – can the solid 2018 results be improved – enough to win the seat?

The decision making in Burlington is informed by the significant number of New Blue Party signs that are showing up – especially in the rural part of the city;  the size of the Muslim vote and if it will turn out for the Liberal candidate.  And will the NDP vote locally continue to grow from the record vote level in the last provincial election.  They have raised more money than ever this time around and have a spacious office set up with a motivated team of volunteers.

The Progressive Conservatives did themselves no favours when they pulled their candidates province wide from taking part in debate or interviews.

They see themselves as leading and don’t want to have a candidate say something that will blow up in their faces. There is very little being said by PC candidates on social media.

Everything comes from the Premier and so far none of the other candidates have been able to lay a glove on him.

Will voters be disgusted with the way they have been treated? Not the base vote for certain. Winning is all that counts.  The voter be damned.

Octavo will be in the field up to May 31st – if there is a break in the news flow on something that could shift voter sentiments he will back back out until the day before the election.

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4 comments to Race for the Burlington seat is still very tight. Undecided voters quite large

  • Joe Gaetan

    During an election, we often see articles in the newspaper that are willing to take a shot at predicting the outcome. Such articles usually state the confidence intervals in terms of proportions or percentages. For example, a poll for a particular candidate running for the “whatever party” might show that candidate X has 40% of the vote within three percentage points (that is if the sample size is large enough). Most often, election polls are calculated with 95% confidence.
    It would be nice to know such things as the confidence level, or were the samples really and truly random or was a bias baked-in. If the sample is not truly random, we probably cannot rely on the results. Non-random samples usually result from a flaw in the sampling procedure. An example of such would be to only survey people at the GO station, at the mall, or by calling during the day, or missing almost everyone who works or doesn’t.
    In any event this info gives us something to chew on. I still stand unscientifically by the notion that the undecided voter will determine who wins.

  • Steve W

    I’m sorry but I really couldn’t care less about this election. I’ve had a few robo calls from unintelligble people asking me if they can count on my vote (I think that’s what they said). I’ve hung up on all. I am so fed up with election promises that are broken, and politicians that don’t care about the electorate. It doesn’t make any difference who is in power … they are all crooks and we suffer.


    Anybody but Ford. A total disaster!

  • Hans Jacobs

    Should the “totals to date” not include May 23?

    Is there such a thing as “the Muslim vote”? Or is it being assumed that voters will tend to vote for their religious affiliation? If the latter is the case, perhaps it would be useful to know the faiths (if any) of other candidates.