Reducing the amount of carbon dioxide we pump out into the environment is what will save the planet - which is our home. It is doable.

By Jim Feilders

June 6, 2016

BURLINGTON, ON

City council fully understands the impact climate change is having on us. The storm in August of 2014 brought that point home in a very vivid and expensive manner. More than three hundred residents suffered significant property loss. The city, the Conservation authority and the Regional government realized there were serious gaps in the level of preparedness.

The climate is changing due in part to the amount of carbon dioxide that is being allowed into the environment. Much of the CO2 is the result of the fossil fuels we burn to run our car engines and heat our homes.

The city has a number of plans in place to begin to cut back on the amount of carbon dioxide that is released into the environment.

Their task is to take specific actions and educate the public.

Burlington Carbon Plans Confusing You?
We have three plans affecting us regarding greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding what they mean can be a little difficult.
Strategic Plan

Council endorsed the Strategic Plan for the next 25 years to 2040 with one of many goals being to be net carbon neutral. It’s a tough call but the right thing to do in my opinion. But what does it mean? The definition in the Strategic Plan is “Having a net-zero carbon footprint refers to achieving net zero carbon emissions by balancing a measured amount of carbon released with an equivalent amount not used, or buying enough carbon credits to make up the difference”.

Talking to City officials, I learned that no one knows exactly how this will be achieved at the moment. Work will be done in the future.

But whatever is done must comply with the triple bottom line philosophy of sustainability. This means any plan must look at environmental and social impacts as well as economic. People have to be on board with the financial and environmental implications.
Province of Ontario

Last year the Province of Ontario announced its targets for carbon reduction to 2050.

We know where we are and the targets for the future have been set – can we summon the discipline to achieve the targets?

Our Premier says we have to reduce total carbon by 37% in 2030 and 80% in 2050 – from 1990 levels.

Community Energy Plan
We have started to address this in the Community Energy Plan (CEP) that Council endorsed in January 2014; a lot of progress has been made.

The focus of the plan is to reduce energy consumption and cost as well as reduce greenhouse gases and improve local energy security.

The timeframe is to 2030. A report on progress to date is available here

It didn’t relate to 1990 levels. We didn’t track them back then and the closest we have is 1994 of 1.4 Mtonnes – close enough. This shows we met the 2014 target (1.4 – 1.19 = 0.21 or 15%, see below) and probably will meet the 2020 targets (1.4 – 1.1 = 0.3 or 21%). But we’re looking a little shy for 2030, coming in at 27%.

The CEP has set a realistic target of 26% reduction in energy consumption per person over the 15 year period from 2014 to 2030.

Although mention is made of investigating heat pump technologies and electric vehicles, the plan does not rely on switching fuels but reducing the amount we use as well as generating new energy from renewable sources. As a result, the amount of greenhouse gas reduction is the same as the energy reduction. If you drive less and save a 65 litre tank of gasoline and you save 156 kg of pollution. If you switch to an alternate fuel, you can still travel almost the original distance.

The plan does not account for population growth which is predicted to rise from 175,000 by about 30,000 people over this period depending on whether you look at the City’s estimates or the Province’s Places to Grow. This is about a 17% population increase. This tells me that if 175,000 people reduce their carbon by 26% and 30,000 people are added to the mix at the same reduction, the net decrease for the City is 14% to 1.025 Mtonnes from 1.19 Mtonnes.

Putting it all together with the best data I could find, is shown in the chart below. It includes the “What if” we do nothing, called business as usual. You know, keep our heads in the sand and keep doing what we have always done. I’m not saying change is easy by any means.

The obvious solution is to make the Community Energy Plan work – problem with that is we don’t know yet how to do that.

Extrapolations for the CEP are less optimistic as most of the behavioural change will have occurred. With our CEP alone, we fall short.

If we determine what the plan is and then stick to the plan – there is hope for us – but we have a long way to go – and it is not going to be easy.

Enter fuel switching. We need to replace gasoline vehicles with electric and hybrid models and transition our residential space heating and water heating from natural gas to electric inverter heat pump technology – air, water and ground sources.

These technologies are actually less expensive on a life cycle basis than their fossil fuel alternatives. Approaches that use a “hybrid” system of gas furnace and heat pump are available. So we can save the planet and money at the same time.

This will bring us close enough that industry can make up the remaining gap.

Halleluiah! We can do it and get our gold star from Kathleen living the life she depicts below.

To now go for carbon neutral may not seem impossible.

Jim Feilders is an engineer by training and an environmentalist by choice.  He drives a hybrid car, heat and air conditions his house at a cost of of approximately $375 a year. The views expressed here are solely his  own and not necessarily those of the various organizations with which he is associated.