By Ray Rivers
May 16, 2014
BURLINGTON, ON.
Canada was one of the first nations to respond to the civil unrest in Kiev and the Russian invasion of Crimea. We recalled our ambassador to Russia, dispatched foreign minister Baird to visit Kiev, booted out a few Russian soldiers visiting us, offered a tiny amount of economic and humanitarian aid and sent over a couple of military observers. This was all announced with the sober deportment which Mr. Harper so capably captures.
Civic engagement – people giving voice to their aspirations.
The Ukrainian situation is complicated. Once considered the bread-basket of Europe, the Ukraine has become an economic basket-case, caught between an ever expanding EU and a newly oil-rich Russia intent on re-establishing the old Soviet Union. It is one of the ironies of civilization that the Ukraine is caught in this potentially matricidal tragedy, having been the cradle of birth for the Russian people. For most of its forty-four thousand year history the Ukrainian people were made captive by any and all invaders, including Huns, Mongols and Turks, the Poles and Swedish Deluge, the Austrian-Hungarian empire, Hitler and most recently the USSR, where it acquired its current geographical dimensions.
Crimea will become part of the Russian Federation, every reasonable person sees that inevitability. The question is whether Russia is content with its acquisition of this tiny peninsula, or whether it will find pretext to invade other parts of the Ukraine. The entire western effort focused on Crimea is about keeping Mr. Putin’s attention there. This hopefully will stall him in order for the Ukrainians to assemble enough of a defence to hold onto the rest of their country.
Mr. Putin is upset. His dreams of expansion have been set back by the impending Ukrainian decision to favour the EU over his dream of a new USSR. It is truly unfortunate that the west didn’t have the foresight to envision this situation. It might have been possible to more fully invite Russia into the European community of nations, such that Mr. Putin would not feel threatened by a pro-west Ukraine. Russia faces the reality of having lost all of its former Warsaw Pact satellites to the EU, and more importantly to NATO. From Putin’s perspective securing his military base in Crimea was the very minimum he should do.
There was a time when Canada was viewed as an honest broker. Lester Pearson won the Nobel Peace prize in 1957, for his trusted independent voice of reason. Today Canada’s foreign policy is about marketing our natural resources, and shamelessly pandering to the ethnic vote back home. So nobody listens to us anymore, and certainly not Mr. Putin. For all the PM’s bluster about the invasion of Crimea, Canada’s only substantial contribution will be through NATO action, should that become necessary.
But we should not deprecate the fact that we were among the first to get involved. We closed our embassy to register our disapproval at the slaughter of protesters. Then, following the flight of besieged president Yanukoyvich, we provided early moral support for the new administration in Kiev, Mr. Harper has a habit of jumping into situations early and this time he got it right and demonstrated leadership.
And there is a lesson from Crimea for Mr. Harper – in fact for all of us. Quebec having just announced elections is busy preparing for its new sovereignty referendum, should the PQ win. In response, it appears the PM has come to life, and begun meeting with parliamentary opposition leaders and provincial premiers about his next steps. After all Crimea’s future in the Ukraine will be determined by a unilateral referendum, not unlike those used in the last two Quebec votes on sovereignty.
Democracy in the Ukraine; what a difference between this and the election Ontario is currently having.
Oh what a tangled web they’ll weave – and all they want is to is secede.
Ray Rivers writes weekly on both federal and provincial politics, applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking. Rivers was a candidate for provincial office in Burlington where he ran against Cam Jackson in 1995, the year Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution swept the province. He developed the current policy process for the Ontario Liberal Party. Rivers is of Ukrainian extraction – for him this is up close and personal.
Background links:
Canada’s Ukraine Contribution Russia vs Nazis
Legal Issues in Ukraine Russian View Kissinger Ukrainian Feed Mulroney on Putin Losing Putin –
Russia Lost the War Ukrainian Diaspora Ukraine History Yanukoyvich Corruption The Crimea Case
