Burlington columnist opines on what is happening to the Ukraine – sees a new world order.

Rivers 100x100 By Ray Rivers

July 27, 2014

BURLINGTON, ON.

It sounds perverse perhaps, but this war against Russia may be the best thing for Ukraine.  It has already succeeded in uniting a broken and divided nation.  The western part wants to be part of the European Union (EU) community of nations and the eastern part, at least before the current occupation by terrorists, had wished they could back to the glorious old Soviet days.  But as the conflict continues east and west are finding one common cause – a growing disdain for Russia.

Ukraine naively gave up its nuclear arsenal, the third largest in the world, to Russia in exchange for a treaty guaranteeing its security.  Ukrainians must regret that decision now since Russia has broken its treaty commitment and invaded while the other signatories to the Budapest Memorandum washed their hands, as if their signatures meant nothing.

Putin - sinister look

There was a time when we saw Russian leader Putin as an ally – he is now being painted as a sinister and perhaps dangerous leader.

Ukraine has long sampled all that Russia has to offer its satellites.  Even after independence the country floated in the Russian orbit, putting off both EU and NATO memberships to avoid upsetting Mother Russia.  But the example of a blossoming Poland, whose economy had rocketed following its EU membership, was just too hard to ignore for Ukrainians watching their economy decline in relative terms, and becoming one of the most corrupt places on the planet – even worse than Russia.

For all the respect world leaders accord the Russian Federation, its economy is smaller than Italy’s.  Yet it punches above its weight on the global scene, given its historical place on the UN Security Council; its vast array of nuclear warheads, second only to the USA; and its huge land mass and natural resources therein.  And, of course, it has sucked the EU into dependency on its natural gas, now so vital for their economies.

But Russia’s days as a fledgling democracy are over.  Putin has jailed his political opponents.  He has converted a once independent media into a smooth propaganda machine that turns out the facts the way he wants them to appear.  No mistake about it, Putin has made the grade from elected President to virtual dictator.  And true to form the downing of Malaysian jet liner by Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine, using a Russian surface to air missile, likely co-ordinated by the Russian military is someone else’s fault.

So the alternate reality recently emanating from Russian media included a number of alternate theories, such as that dead bodies had been placed in the plane, a kind of ‘zombie’ vessel, and set to explode over rebel occupied territory to embarrass them, or that the Ukrainian air force had actually shot down the plane thinking it was Putin returning from Brazil.

Of course the west is partly to blame for this conflict – at least by how is has responded.  NATO is in shambles, having been neglected for decades while member countries reducing their defense budgets every year.  The pleas for more NATO support in the Baltic and south eastern member states have fallen on deaf ears as leaders reflect on what NATO was actually trying to accomplish in Afghanistan.

And Ukraine’s future EU partners are sleep walking, reticent to make Putin pay for his  aggression and the disruption of a world order form which the Russian economy benefited so well – exports of natural gas for imported weapons to modernize Russia’s military.

Putin and Obama

Is the future of the western world in the hands of these two men?

It is not the west’s fault that the Ukrainian army was run into the ground over the last couple decades, nor that it has taken the nation this long to realize that a brighter future lies sleeping with the rest of Europe and not Russia.  And it isn’t the west’s fault that Ukraine is on the cusp of bankruptcy as a result of corruption and its treasury having been plundered by the former president.  But it is our fault that we have not reacted more quickly and more substantially.  Doing so might have caught this current conflict in the bud.

The world order has changed again, though it seems only a few years ago that Russia was a partner rather than an enemy.  Whether it is Putin’s unobtainable strategy, his ego or his disdain for the west, he has changed the way we will look at east-west relations for a long time.   And even if Putin pulled back his mercenaries in Ukraine and stopped shelling their common border, he’d still have to explain the Malaysian air tragedy for which he bears ultimate responsibility.  And after this is over Ukraine will have found its inner self and Russia, hopefully, found a new leader.

Corruption    Airliner Shot Down    Airliner Blame Game    Putin    The Nuclear Issue    Russia Gone Rogue    Propaganda    Ukraine Conflict

Russian alternate Reality      Canadian Support

Rivers-direct-into-camera1-173x300Ray Rivers writes weekly on both federal and provincial politics, applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking.  Rivers was a candidate for provincial office in Burlington where he ran against Cam Jackson in 1995, the year Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution swept the province. He developed the current policy process for the Ontario Liberal Party.

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4 comments to Burlington columnist opines on what is happening to the Ukraine – sees a new world order.

  • Kurt

    As the saying goes “History repeats itself”. Does this situation not remind you of Europe in the late 30’s? A weak set of governments appeasing Hitler, while he started to occupy area of Europe, with the excuse of protecting German speaking populations.

  • Bryce Lee

    Sadly what has happened in the Ukraine bodes poorly for those of us who see uprisings in other places in the world. The US loves war, so how will the US handle this crisis and perhaps
    the new Iraq/Afghanistan problems? Let them fester on their own or send in bombs and troops to try and have the invaded see the world their way?

    Or maybe we should just sit back, and watch. NATO and the UN are useless when it comes to being a controlling force.

    If we or the US is attacked then we respond. Until then do nothing.

    • Steve Robinson

      Iraq was the worst mistake the US has ever made. Afghanistan started off with the right intentions of punishing the Taliban government and killing al Qaeda. First off, the invasion of Iraq didn’t make sense for Iraq wasn’t America’s worst enemy by a long shot there are lots of Islamic countries that were/are worse. Take America’s “ally” Pakistan they were the ones hiding Bin Laden just yards away from their West Point. Point is that the idiocy of “nation building” in these two Islamic countries was insane for both Afghanistan and Iraq were never going to accept democracy, as the west defines it. The forces of Sharia law guarantee endless violent strife until its dominance. As we saw in Turkey the killing of a Caliph and the strict confinement on Islamic law was a 100 year never-ending battle to contain it, which finally lost with the advent of Erdogan. How did anyone think the infidels were going to impose democracy in Muslim lands? The strike first premise isn’t always a bad idea, but if one knows nothing of their enemies ideologies, then it’s always a bad idea, and as in Iraq and eventually Afghanistan, a political and financial catastrophe.

  • Steve Robinson

    I’m sure the minute Obama took office Putin put on his old KGB uniform and caressed himself. The weakest President in American history shows us what happens with authoritarian tyrant rats when the cats away.