 By Tom Parkin
April 11th, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
Voters were told to expect a significantly bigger PC majority and half of NDP MPPs defeated. Actually, each party shifted by just one seat.
 The difference between the actual election results that returned Doug Ford to office and what the pollsters predicted raised more than a few eyebrows. One has to wonder if the same thing is happening with the polling being done in the current federal election.
Doctors bury their mistakes. Architects cover them with ivy. But it seems those running poll projection sites just move on to the next.
Philippe Fournier’s 338 Canada, Eric Grenier’s The Writ and Quito Maggi’s Mainstreet all got it badly wrong in the 2025 Ontario election, influencing voter behaviours and prejudicing electoral outcomes with seat projections showing the Ontario NDP would lose about half its seats and the PCs would significantly increase their majority.
In fact, the Ontario PCs came into the election with 79 MPPs and came out with 80. The NDP had 28 going in and elected 27.
It’s impossible to know how many voters switched their vote based on inaccurate projections. Or decided not to bother voting because the PCs had it in bag, anyway.
But it’s reasonable to believe that had seat projection sites given voters accurate information, Ontario turnout would have been higher, the PC win would have been tighter and the NDP would have done better.
Seat projections are modelled on past geographic vote distribution patterns. But in the Ontario election, NDP votes shifted to become more effectively concentrated in NDP incumbent seats. And that’s very likely exactly what’s happening to federal NDP votes right now. In fact, distribution shifts happens every election.
If a pollster reported a party was at 13 per cent the day before 27 per cent of voters supported them, there’d be a lot of explaining to do. And some amazing Twitter fights. Media platforms would stop contracting them and reporting their results.
But not seat projection sites. On the Ontario NDP, Mainstreet’s margin of error was 80.0 per cent, The Writ was off 107.6 per cent, and 338 Canada was off 68.8 per cent. And they’re all back again.
And this time the Toronto Star has even added a new company to the mix, Vox Populi, the people who did that bizarre on-line consultation for the federal Liberal government in the wake of Justin Trudeau breaking his electoral reform promise.
Until people start calling out bad data for hurting elections, don’t expect change, but do expect some election night surprises.
 By Staff
April 8th, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
Liberal voters saying they’re “very committed” has risen from 46 to 62 per cent over past five weeks
It was a chaotic week across the globe and in Canada as U.S. President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on nearly every nation in the world. And while “uncertainty” seems to be the defining word of the year, certainty does appear to be growing among Liberal voters who have yet to definitively commit to their preferred choice in the ongoing federal election.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that while the Conservative Party continues to trail the Liberals in overall vote intent, it also continues to hold the advantage among committed voters. Approximately seven-in-10 CPC voters say they will not change their mind before they cast a ballot.
Herein, however, lies the importance of paying attention to both the surface story and the dynamic undercurrents of vote intention, as the Liberals are also making headway in closing the commitment gap. Three-in-five (62%) Liberal now voters say they are very committed, up from 46 per cent in early March.
Overall, 46 per cent of eligible Canadian voters say they will support their Liberal candidate, while 36 per cent say this of the CPC. The New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois are both supported by seven per cent currently.
Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s personal favourability rating continues to be a boon to the Liberals. More than half of Canadians (55%) view him positively, compared to 34 per cent for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The CPC leader is viewed unfavourably by 60 per cent of Canadians, while 38 per cent say the same of Carney.
 More Key Findings:
The Liberal Party leads by 11 points over the CPC in British Columbia and 16 points in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Québécois 39 per cent to 30 per cent, while the CPC are chosen by 22 per cent.
Choosing between Carney and Poilievre, 50 per cent say Carney would be the better prime minister, while 28 per cent say this of the Conservative leader. 13 per cent say neither would be a good prime minister.
By Staff
April 2nd, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
The question that goes with this picture is: Do you still believe the polls?
The lineup was of people attending a Pierre Poileivre event in Kingston, Ontario on a day when the polls had the Liberals ahead by more than 9 points.
 That is a very very long line – people in Kingston waiting to get into a Pierre Poilievre speech.
 By Staff
April 1st, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
Liberals hold massive lead among those Comfortable & Thriving on Anhus Reid Economic Stress Index
Economic turmoil between Canada and the United States has taken the headlines this year, perhaps obscuring several positive domestic trends. Falling rents, a grocery cost reprieve, and stable inflation have some Canadians feeling better about their economic stress, and it appears to the benefit of the federal Liberals.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a two-point decrease this quarter in the number of Canadians “Struggling” on the Economic Stress Index, which measures self-professed ability to pay for housing, groceries, and debt, as well as optimism about the coming year and an assessment of past 12 months. This decrease adds to a five-point drop between September and December, meaning approximately one-quarter fewer of those who were Struggling at the beginning of fall say the same now at the beginning of spring (33% down to 25%).
 As pundits and observers seek to understand campaign dynamics and the interplay of voters between the Conservative and Liberal Party, consider that the CPC continue to by far the top choice for the Struggling, with more than half of that group (56%) saying they would vote for Pierre Poilievre’s party. This is close to identical to the CPC’s support among the Struggling over the past year. The challenge for Poilievre and co. is that this group has shrunk significantly, and Liberal support has risen from 12 to 26 per cent within it.
The story is equally challenging within other groups across the Economic Stress Index.
 
Among the Uncomfortable, the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied after the CPC led by 29 points in December. The Liberals lead by 15 points among the Comfortable and 30 within the Thriving. The Conservatives led both groups at the end of 2024.
By Pepper Parr
March 31st, 2025
BURLINGTON, ON
In a campaign that has been remarkable for its volatility and dynamism, a new element enters the race: relative stability.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds voter intention unchanged over the last week, with the Liberal Party holding an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, while the fortunes of the NDP and Bloc remain similarly unchanged.
Asked how they intend to vote, 46 per cent of Canadian voters say they will support the Liberals, compared to 38 per cent for the Conservative Party. Support for the NDP (7%) and Bloc Québécois (7%) continues to linger in single digits.
Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to maintain an advantage among most demographic groups. Men aged 35- to 54-years-old are the only age-gender segment to be more likely to vote Conservative. The Liberals otherwise lead between four points (men older than 55) and 27 points (women older than 55).
Further, Carney’s positive net favourability among both men (+18) and women (+26) remains stable. His rivals – Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh – struggle among one gender or the other. For Poilievre, this represents an ongoing inability to build positive impressions among women – three-in-five (61%) who say they view him unfavourably. For Singh, same problem, only among men, who by a two-to-one margin view him more negatively than positively.
The resurgence of the Liberals fueled by Carney’s election to leader is partially driven by women voters returning to the party after abandoning it at the end of 2024, but also by picking up vote intention from men. In March 2021, support for the Liberals among men ranged from 27 per cent among 18- to 34-year-olds, to 30 per cent among men aged 35 to 54. The Carney Liberals currently are receiving support from 45 per cent of 18- to 34-year-old men and 46 per cent of those older than 54.
The battle at this point is between Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney Carney. The focus is on the gender differences in the data Angus Reid has collected.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh stands a chance of losing his British Columbia seat.
Hovering over all this is the Trump tariff threat – with a major announcement expected on Wednesday.
Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney had his first call with U.S. President Donald Trump, who struck a much more positive tone than seen in recent weeks and described the conversation as “very productive”. Trump also appeared to be more respectful of Carney, considering Trump called Carney by his official title and not governor, as he did with predecessor Justin Trudeau. Canada’s response to the U.S., and the tact taken by the leader of its future federal government, remains a key issue for the campaign.
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