By Eric Vandewall
May 28th, 2021
BURLINGTON, ON
Last week, the Government of Ontario unveiled a three-stage reopening plan that relies on vaccination rates, critical care occupancy, and other criteria to allow the gradual easing of current restrictions as well as the re[1]opening of businesses and activities. This news follows a very encouraging decline in acute care hospitalizations cases and decline in the number of daily new COVID 19 cases.
At JBH, we are starting to see some relief from the intense pressure on our critical care beds, and are currently at 86% capacity. As of today, we are caring for 4 confirmed COVID-19 positive patients, with 1 confirmed case in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), along with 16 recovered patients who continue to require our care in the ICU and acute care units.
While we are seeing positive signs that we nearing an end to the third wave of this pandemic, we are still some time away from being able to say we are in the post-pandemic recovery phase. We must remain vigilant and continue to be patient – we will get there, it will take time.
Last week, the province lifted the restrictions in place since April that paused scheduled and non-urgent procedures to help manage the sharp increase in the number of COVID-19 patients across the province. This means that hospitals can begin resuming these services if they can do so while still maintaining COVID-19 care capacity.
We know how important resuming this care is to our patients and their families. At JBH, we are starting to move in that direction and are working with our clinical teams and regional hospital partners to ramp up surgical care as quickly and as safely as possible. However, it is important that we continue to preserve critical care capacity for COVID-19 care, so this may take time to complete. If you are awaiting a surgery or other procedure, your doctor will contact you directly with more information.
This week, we reached a significant milestone in having administered over 25,000 vaccinations at our Halton Region Vaccination Clinic. It was a proud moment for our teams and a testament to the hard work of our staff, volunteers and partners in public health. Across Halton, over 300,000 people have now received either a first or second dose. We are very grateful to everyone in the community who has received the vaccine, booked an appointment, or are planning to do so once it is their turn.
It is important to remember that regardless of your vaccination status, public health experts recommend that we should continue to follow safety measures such as wearing masks in public, physical distancing, and regular hand washing.
I hope that you have found these community updates helpful in keeping you informed about our work at JBH.
Thank you so much for your ongoing support
“we are still some time away from being able to say we are in the post-pandemic recovery phase.”
Please explain what your interpretation of post pandemic would be. Our provincial daily cases have fallen from mid 4000’s to the 1000 range in just over a week. This despite the hordes of people enjoying the beach and Spencer Smith Park that just a few weeks ago council wanted police to charge people because it is (I mean was) so dangerous. People were visiting with family over the long weekend (hopefully in groups of 5 or less). Again, just a week or two ago that was so dangerous that it was legislated as illegal. And in spite of this behaviour cases are dramatically down.
So a 400+ % decrease in cases and you are still playing the crisis card? The message from the book Chicken Little should be required reading before such ridiculous statements are released.
“However, it is important that we continue to preserve critical care capacity for COVID-19 care”
And yet on May 6 you said the hospital was at 83% capacity with 17 cases and 12 in ICU, three weeks later you’re saying that 4 cases and 1 in ICU equals 86% capacity. Something is not adding up here. To use an old expression, there are three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
I don’t know where Bob got his numbers, or counting skills, and the idea he puts out that we basically got out of the pandemic in “just over a week” is ludicrous. This shows he knows nothing about the pandemic dynamics, and how dangerous the virus is.
The lockdown was called on April 8, when new cases that day was 4227, high above the 7-day average of 3256. On April 17, 9 days later and about Bob’s just over a week, the new cases were 4250, and the average was 4341, so we were at the peak of this wave, not at the 1000 range.
That was followed by a long period of average decline, but completely contrary to Bob’s assertion, it took until May 27 to get daily cases down from the mid 4000s to new cases at 1273 and an average of 1353.
So by the arithmetic I learned in school, this took from April 8 lockdown, to May 27, which is 57 days to get from the mid 4000s to about 1300 for daily cases.
The stress on the health care system is still in shutdown for many things like surgery, and is being worked out in others. St. Josephs in Hamilton is worse off I think in surgeries, but much the same in general.
Overall, I think the hospital guy can probably count what his capacity is on a functional basis and what the changes and pressures are. So I will just go with what the Hospital President says – why on earth would he lie?
We are a long way to the end, and the virus does not allow any slips or mistakes.
Bob gets his figures from Mr Vandewall himself
April 15, 2121, Burlington Gazette from Mr Vandewall
“We have added four intensive care beds and will be adding three more by the end of this week – 31 beds in total. But resources are limited, and may not be enough if the demand continues.”
May 6 2021 in the Burlington Gazette
“The situation remains precarious, yet hopeful. In terms of our hospital’s capacity, today JBH is at 83% capacity. We are currently caring for 17 patients with confirmed COVID-19 as well as presumed and resolved cases – 12 of the confirmed COVID-19 patients are in Intensive Care Unit (ICU).”
May 28, 2021 in this story
At JBH, we are starting to see some relief from the intense pressure on our critical care beds, and are currently at 86% capacity. As of today, we are caring for 4 confirmed COVID-19 positive patients, with 1 confirmed case in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), along with 16 recovered patients who continue to require our care in the ICU and acute care units
So let’s do some math here and feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. I’ll use this story first.
31 beds, 16+1+4=21 out of 31 beds, thats 67%.
Using the May 6 figures Mr Vandewall supplied if 17 patients out of the 31 capacity that’d only be 54%, so I’ll assume he meant to add the 12 in intensive care and make it 29 out of 31 capacity. Hmmm that doesn’t add up to 93% so somewhere the math doesn’t add up. If we are talking hospital capacity even though a good many surgeries and operating rooms are not being utilized at this time, I would be curious as to where the figures are coming from.
Using the statistics from the Government of Ontario https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
Halton saw peak number on May 2nd at 129 steadily decreasing until a spike again on May 20 when again we spiked at 69 and have decreased since. Not sure what calendar Tom uses, but my calendar shows that as approximately a week and a half ago.
I agree I didn’t get my point across accurately as to the speed of the decreasing numbers. Without getting into tons of politics I meant just over a week since the lockdown had been extended. The point I was trying to get out was it only a few weeks ago in this very paper that politicians were moaning that people were actually going outside to public parks and how the police weren’t ticketing people for the crime of being outside.
I will use your own statistics for this one, if the peak was on April 8, then when Mr Vandewall wrote in this paper on May 6 a month after the peak (and you do want me to believe the hospital guy right?) then he would have had the data that numbers had been steadily declining when he wrote his the sky is falling piece on the 6th just as he has the declining numbers as he wrote this one.
I am no more of an expert at this deadly virus than anyone else commenting here Tom and unless you’re an epidemiologist yourself and have actual cultures you are studying g in the lab, all you know is what you’ve been told and believe. At no time did I say the CEO lied, I’ve asked him legitimate questions after every story he (or more likely the Joe Brant PR department) has written and have not gotten an answer to any. Until he can explain discrepancies I will ask when I find his numbers questionable
I’m not going to argue about the hospital numbers. They are not mine, and you can torture them how you want, to say what you want.
But I will point out that you used Ontario trend numbers in your first comment, NOT HALTON, as you do here.
I got my data from the same Ontario source as you, so why did you pick the Halton numbers this time around? You must know this looks like a bad attempt at deception.
My numbers are correct to criticize the point you first made, and I disputed. Now you are brazenly evading the facts at dispute.
Doing this is exactly what is meant by you saying in your first comment: “Something is not adding up here. To use an old expression, there are three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
Looks familiar to your tactics here. Shameless.
And you have the further gall to say you didn’t call Mr. Vandewall a liar? Where did the lies you refer to come from?
I was a scientist when I worked, with competencies to address these questions, including epi and statistics, so don’t tell me what I know or how I know it.
Enough of this – no more.
Let’s reply in order
For your comment regarding you won’t comment on the hospital numbers because they’re not yours. My whole point was to question the hospital numbers so unless your are doing PR for Mr Vandewall why did you respond at all?
Your second point, you have the same source of data I have and know that the provincial numbers run the same curve as Halton’s. If you wish to dispute my numbers, provide the you different ones that you and I both know are proportionally similar. I only used Halton’s numbers as it was easier to find on the provincial governments website. No deception intended and if you wish to show different I would gladly apologize.
I am not brazenly trying to evade any facts, in fact I have provided sources for all my facts and quotes from the person stating the facts when appropriate.
At no point have I called anyone a liar. If you have read my quotes from Mr Vandewall and jump to that conclusion that is on you, I have quoted his statistics which is what you seem to be evading. I like to quote my sources so how’s this one.
“I’m not going to argue about the hospital numbers.” Tom Muir, 5/29/21
Who’s evading? And is shameful?
Your previous career has no bearing on this argument by the way unless it’s to make you feel superior somehow since you have no idea what I do or anyone else when you reply on here.