By Pepper Parr
April 17th, 2021
BURLINGTON, ON
One of a series of articles on the Science Table data that led to the decisions the Premier made to limit mobility.
Is there anything that can be done to change these numbers asked a reporter at the Science Table media event Friday afternoon.
The answer from Dr. David Williams was a one word stark answer: N0
His colleague Dr. Adelstein Brown added that “those numbers are baked in”
The hospitals do not have the capacity currently to care for the number of people that need intensive care. The Premier has said 700 to 1000 beds are being added – most as field hospitals.
The reference was to the number of people currently in intensive care. We know now roughly how many of those people will die.
One reporter wanted to know: Is this the disaster that was expected if the province relented back in February?
We did relent back in February and this is what we have to show for it responded Dr. Williams.
There was a choice to be made between economics and public health.
Dr. Adelstein Brown, on the left is head of the Science Table. Dr. Williams is the Chief Medical Officer for the province. His role is to advise the politicians.
The sudden appearance of particularly contagious variants of Covid made a tough situation much worse.
It can get a lot worse added Dr. Williams who was on the media event with Dr. Adelstein Brown.
Brown heads up the Science Table while Williams is the Chief Medical Officer for the province.
The data presented shows clearly where the mistakes were made.
Many are of the belief that if the province had not relented late in February the dire crisis we face now could have been avoided.
Some people have been saying that there is no science behind the decision to extend the time to the second vaccine dose. I don’t’ believe the vaccines were trialed that way, and this is sub-optimal, but there is some science behind this.
I’m not up on virology and vaccinology, but let’s dive into the difference between sterilizing immunity and effective immunity. So feel free t correct me where I am wrong.
You can have the virus SARS-CoV-2 without the disease Covid19. But not the other way around. These vaccines are good at preventing Covid19 not clear whether they prevent the infection. So they are good at providing effective immunity, but not clear whether they provide sterilizing immunity. Though some animal data (challenge trials) and data from Israel suggest they do work this way.
Measles vaccine for example does provide sterilizing immunity. Once you are vaccinated, you can’t infect somebody else with measles even if you have been exposed. Polio vaccine provides effective immunity without sterilizing immunity. The polio vaccine eradicated polio, basically because of strong effective immunity and most everyone got vaccinated in a relatively short time. Stomped it out.
I think these vaccines provide great effective immunity and I would think some sterilizing immunity. But extending the time for the second injection may alter any sterilizing immunity quality. Might not.
So my thinking, rightly or wrongly, is that the powers that be are planning on using the (known) strong effective immunity properties combined with getting everybody vaccinated fast. Some time ago I opined that should be considered. Seems like a very reasonable plan considering where we are, at and what we have. Because right now, that is as good as it gets.
So I am happy to stay at home, distance when out, mask up and get your vaccine.
Just my thinking, worth what you paid for it.