Population of the Region will more than double by 2051 - some of that growth is going to take place in Burlington

News 100 redBy Pepper Parr

June 24th, 2020



Mayor Meed Ward is sharing her correspondence from the Hon. Steve Clark, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing in which he outlined the proposed changes in population growth numbers issued by the province.

Each part of the province is assigned a number that sets out what the province expects the population to be between now and 2051

The information is in the provinces More Homes, More Choice: Ontario’s Housing Supply Action Plan.

The update is to three major pieces of legislation:

growth targets to 2051;

mineral aggregate operations; and

land-use needs/assessment.

Pop growth 2051

The two thick black lines at the bottom left mark the data projection. The figures are the number of people that will be added by 2051. The current population of the Region is about 550,000

Here are the direct links to the proposed changes on the Province’s website — the deadline for comments is July 31, and the City of Burlington will be submitting our comments to the provincial government.

According to the proposed growth targets for Halton Region, at the high end it is 1.156 million and at the low end it’s 1.060 million for 2051

Using the highest number, Halton will determine how much of the 1.156 million will go to each municipality: Burlington, Oakville, Milton and Halton Hills.

Given the current population numbers Milton is likely to get the bulk. Halton Hills does not have the water infrastructure that is needed – Milton does.

The current population of the Region is in the 550,000 people.

In his letter the Minister said:

In 2019, our government introduced A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (‘the Plan’, ‘A Place to Grow’) as part of the More Homes, More Choice: Ontario’s Housing Supply Action Plan. Today, I am writing to notify you of proposed changes to the Plan including updates and policy changes to the population and employment forecasts, a change to the Plan horizon year, a new Land Needs Assessment methodology, adjustments to the aggregates policy framework, new policies to address Major Transit Station Areas within Provincially Significant Employment Zones (PSEZs), and other policy revisions that support our government’s objectives to increase housing supply, create more jobs, attract business investments and better align infrastructure. We are asking for your input on these proposed amendments to the Plan.

I realize the proposed changes come at a time of uncertainty when many municipalities are managing urgent matters related to our shared work to protect the health and well-being of our residents across Ontario. The Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) will be critical to economic recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. The GGH is a key economic driver of both the province and the nation, with more than 85 per cent of the province’s population growth expected in this region by 2051. In fact, we are anticipating that by 2051 this region will grow to nearly 15 million people and accommodate seven million jobs. In order to support municipalities in preparing for this anticipated growth so that you can complete your municipal comprehensive review and official plan revisions, my ministry is proposing these targeted revisions to A Place to Grow to make it faster and easier for municipalities in the region to plan for growth.

Details of the proposed changes are as follows:

The proposed changes would work together to provide more flexibility and foresight to municipalities into demographic, employment, market demand, and housing affordability trends in the GGH. The consultation period will close on July 31, 2020.  We look forward to receiving any comments you may have.

The next phase of work on PSEZs, which will begin shortly, will examine how they can support post-COVID economic recovery to support the retention and expansion of existing industrial and manufacturing operations and attract investment. The government continues to view PSEZs as an important tool and looks forward to engaging with businesses, municipalities, Indigenous communities and organizations, and the development industry to maximize opportunities within a PSEZ.

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