Rivers gets carried away with what he thinks Bob Rae can do for Canada; Trudeau suggests a different way to count the ballots - Tories continue to spend a bundle on advertising.

Ray Rivers

June 19. 2015

BURLINGTON, ON

“If I didn’t think he was ready I wouldn’t have stepped aside,” former interim Liberal leader Bob Rae noted. He was speaking at a gathering of Flamborough-Glanbrook Liberals Thursday night in the intimate Cafe Troy in West Flamborough. Of course, Rae was referring to the recent Conservative attack ads aimed at Justin Trudeau, as he addressed the crowd who had come to support local federal candidate Jennifer Stebbing.

Flamborough-Glanbrook Liberal candidate Jennifer Stebbing with Bob Rae Thursday night in the Cafe Troy in West Flamborough.

As I introduced the former Liberal interim leader and provincial Premier, rhyming off his numerous accomplishments, I couldn’t help thinking how perfectly qualified he would be to help navigate Canada’s political waters should there be an impasse after the election this October. A three party split could well see the Conservatives run up through the middle of the two centre-left parties, but I’m betting on another parliamentary minority.

In 1985 Bob Rae’s third place NDP crawled into bed with David Peterson’s second place Liberals, to give birth to the first non-Tory Ontario government in over four decades. Their two-year fling ended in grief for the NDP, though that party gained considerable credibility and was well positioned for its first ever Ontario majority in 1990.

At the end of 2007 when Stephen Harper’s minority Conservatives were facing parliamentary revolt over the economy, the two national opposition leaders, Jack Layton and Stephan Dion, formed a coalition aimed at removing him. Harper survived by shutting down Parliament until he could persuade Canadians he had changed his economic policy, and the once-eager coalition partners had cooled their jets.

Once again it was Bob Rae who was given the job of picking up the pieces of the stillborn coalition idea. However, enthusiasm for any kind of coalition with a third party had soon dissipated as Liberals reaffirmed their determination to regain a majority on their own.

There is no certainty over where this year’s October election will land us, and for that reason alone, it may be the most interesting election in modern Canadian times. Bob Rae speculated that, like what we saw in Alberta last month, many voters are fatigued, tired, disillusioned and bored with the status quo, and looking for a change. And that means either or both of the opposition parties could benefit.

The Conservatives have been ramping up their advertising, burning up our taxpayer dollars, as sitting governments running on their record are wont to do. They can be expected to re-announce existing programs in an attempt to project an air of progress into their campaign. This was evident when they recently announced some previously allocated infrastructure money for Toronto. And of course the attack ads will continue, though they may shift onto the NDP, providing Mulcair keeps polling this well.

In the context of this electoral uncertainty, Mr. Trudeau has announced his latest tranche of policy, this time improving our imperfect democracy by changing how we elect our members. The Greens and NDP have long advocated changing to a more representative system of electing parliamentarians, though Canadians have so-far rejected proportional representation.

It hasn’t reached a fever pitch yet – it might not but he does know how to pull all the heart strings and both his hair and his children get many mentions. The bold new ideas? – haven’t heard those yet. what he did assure his audience was that he had very solid values – but didn’t make much mention of what they were.  Picture taken when Trudeau was last in Burlington – the hair is shorter now

So ranked or preferential balloting may be in the cards if Trudeau’s party wins the election. That would ensure that all MPs have been elected with at least 50% of the vote as a first or second choice. And that would mean that the party in power would have been elected with the support of at least half of all Canadians, compared to the thirty-something percent the Conservatives got in the last election.

With the Conservatives opposed to anything but first-past-the-post, there would need to be a Liberal, NDP or Liberal-NDP government to change the system. And that may be where Mr. Rae comes in, if he is invited to help put a centre-left coalition together to bring about electoral change. After all, he’s been there before. Who knows the two parties better?

Ray Rivers writes weekly on both federal and provincial politics, applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking. Rivers was a candidate for provincial office in Burlington where he ran as a Liberal against Cam Jackson in 1995, the year Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution swept the province.

Background links:

Bob Rae    Mulcair Government-In-Waiting    Trudeau Open Democracy

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