We are less than two weeks out from the opening of candidates filing their nomination papers to run in October’s municipal election.  Across the city, there have been rumblings of various candidates considering running for elected office.

Challengers in an election need an appreciation of three key factors.  First, the duties and time commitment involved in being a councillor or mayor. Second, the effort required to mount a credible campaign. Finally, a realistic appraisal of their chances of success.

In a previous article, I wrote about what it would take to mount a successful campaign.  Realistically, to have a legitimate chance of winning a council seat, one would need to raise at least $10K and have a team of 10-15 dedicated volunteers for canvassing, literature drop-offs, and other activities.  For the mayor’s office, you can probably multiply these numbers by a factor of at least three to five.

The Devil is in the Details

The truth is that incumbents in this city often owe much of their electoral success to vote splitting. Vote splitting occurs when multiple candidates opposed to the incumbent’s platform and candidacy decide to run individually.  For those seeking a change, the results don’t always bode positively.

Think back to 2018.  The previous mayor and council had caused widespread dismay throughout the city. Voters were angry and on edge over a number of issues, ranging from intensification to traffic. There were no acclamations that year, and multiple challengers in many wards.

Ward 1 presented the most telling example of a council race with far too many candidates. In a crowded electoral field of eleven candidates, the incumbent won with just over 21% of the vote. 7 of the 11 candidates garnered less than 10% of the popular vote.

Ward 5 was another interesting race. The major issue in that campaign was the proposed redevelopment of the Lakeside Village Shopping Plaza. There were four candidates challenging the incumbent. Paul Sharman edged out his closest opponent, Wendy Moraghan, by only six percentage points. Had one or two other candidates not run, the final result would likely have been much different.

The Ward 4 results from that year highlight what happens when a community consolidates behind one opponent, and there is a clear choice between the incumbent and his/her challenger.

How to Avoid Vote Splitting

Clearly, vote splitting favours incumbents.  However, for residents considering running for municipal office, how can they avoid vote splitting?  Here are some options.

First, nominations open May 1^st.  By the end of August, they will close. At that point, the slate of candidates for each ward is set. If multiple candidates are running against the incumbent, those with similar philosophies and approaches should meet to realistically assess their prospects of success. As mentioned, if even one candidate in Ward 5 had done this in 2018, the results would likely have been considerably different.

Second, brand identification, visibility, and profile are necessary to mount an effective campaign. For example, if you had three candidates with aligned philosophies who are challenging an incumbent, but two have no visible public profile, limited prior community involvement, inadequate funding and only nominal support, then they should “take one for the team”, exit the race, and throw their support to the sole remaining contender.  The candidate with the most funds and volunteers has a greater chance of success than those without.

Third, in order to evaluate their level of support, candidates should consider this.  There are 122 days between May 1^st and August 31^st.  According to the 2021 Census, there are approximately 73,180 households in Burlington. That works out to between 10,000 and 14,000 per ward. Assuming a candidate filed their nomination papers early and their campaign team spent a reasonable amount of time campaigning (e.g., 5 days per week, 8 hours per day), one would realistically expect they could knock on 200 homes per day and probably 1,000 per week. In a ten to fourteen-week stretch, they could probably reach every household in the ward at least once.

If, by the end of August, a candidate hasn’t commenced canvassing, it isn’t impossible to get up to speed.  However, by the time they start canvassing, their opponents who entered the race early have already finished their first canvass and may be initiating a second.  Is it realistic to think a late entrant can catch up?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

The Early Bird Usually Catches the Worm

Truly, those late to the game are at a competitive disadvantage. If they are committed to running, then get in early. If not, then recognize the need for a massive infusion of resources and funding in a much shorter timeframe to overcome their opponent’s lead.

While a social media campaign will secure some brand recognition, understanding that politics is about making a connection is crucial. Often, that comes through personal contact, not by sitting in a home office cranking out another YouTube video or posting a blog.