By Tom Parkin

Compared to the April 28 general election, the average of results from November’s publicly-released poll show the top moves are:

• Conservatives down 3.8 points to 37.5 per cent support
• NDP up 2.7 to 9.0 per cent
• Liberals down 1.8 to 42.0
• BQ up 0.4 to 6.7 per cent.

NDP gains from Liberals, Conservatives lose to everyone

Unfortunately, not many pollsters help us understand where these gains and losses are coming from or going to. Angus Reid’s November 17 poll is the only survey that provides cross-tabs of current vote intention against past vote, showing shifts between the parties, from previous non-voters or into the undecided column.

A further step determines the net gains between choices. For example, since the last election, while 21 respondents moved from the NDP to the Liberals, 72 switched from the Liberals to NDP, a net gain of 51 for the NDP.

Net score below can be summarized as:

• NDP made large net gains from Liberals and smaller net gains from Conservatives
• Liberals made net gains from Conservatives but lost to NDP, BQ and others
• BQ gained from Conservatives and Liberals
• Conservative lost to all of the above, including others (assume PPC) and undecided.

An NDP focus on Conservatives to unlock Liberal strategic voting?

Carney’s rightward orientation and move to absorb Conservative support has given the NDP some space for a rebound, but the strategic conditions the NDP faces are not substantially changed. The challenge isn’t so much to gain Liberal support as to hold it.

Though Conservative support is bleeding, at 37.5 per cent they remain a threat. Given that Poilievre seems uninclined to change his polarizing style, the Liberals’ ability to demand strategic voting, regardless of their rightward repositioning, remains intact.

But the Liberal focus on gaining Conservative support opens an interesting possibility for the NDP: to also court past Conservatives, but a different demographic than the more affluent voters the Liberals are poaching. The most obvious group for the NDP to pursue would be the blue collar Conservatives Poilievre has worked hard to gain.

A successful class-based attack on Poilievre would not only make direct gains at Conservative expense but also, in pushing down their support, unlock NDP voters from Liberal strategic voting.

And if nothing else, a more class-forward approach would align the federal NDP with its labour allies and provincial NDP sections, almost all of which face the challenge of gaining with blue collar Conservatives if they are to win or hold government.

By Pepper Parr

December 9th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

 

She lives and breathes.

Chose not to take part in an all-candidate debate during the last election,  Natalie Pierre , Burlington’s MPP will be speaking to her motion in the provincial legislaturethis week.

Queen’s Park Observer reports that PC Natalie Pierre has a (non-binding) motion that could “require municipal development charges to be disclosed as a distinct and clearly identifiable line item on all purchase agreements for new home sales.”

Not a bad idea – wonder what the development community and the lawyers who draft the sales agreement think about it?

 

By Pepper Parr

December 9th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

 

There was a time when Burlington had a healthy number of local community organizations, built around education and recreation issues.

Burlington was a bustling place – parents were involved, and life was safe, easy, with no major issues taking up everyone’s time.

That began to change as we got into the 1980’s and into the 90’s

The city hummed along when Walter Mulkewich was Mayor; never any tax increases, and not nearly enough spent on infrastructure – leaving the city with a several million dollar gap that now requires a 2% tax levy that will go on for at least two decades.

In 2018 a community organization was created to get the vote out.

Rick Goldring was Mayor. Marianne Meed Ward, then a Councillor for Ward 2, had decided she wanted to be Mayor.  She won the seat with the promise that there would be no towers in the downtown core.

She eventually got the Urban Growth boundary moved north of the downtown core and committed herself to building high-rise towers around the three GO stations, which became known as MTSA’s

The community organization Engaged Citizens of Burlington held all candidate meetings in every city ward during the lead-up to the 2018 election did a superb job.  The only thing one could complain about is that ECoB never did release a financial statement.

ECoB used the money raised to pay for the debates and one event held at the Burlington Performing Art Centre ( A Tale of 2 Cities). We arranged for a meeting prior to the election at Tansley Woods Community Centre to try to inform potential candidates on how to run an election campaign and what the job entailed.

They had to pay for the use of the venues for some of the debates. They decided to have a videographer film the debates so that residents who could not physically come to the Ward Debate could watch them on YouTube.  We had to pay for people to operate the sound systems at the debates themselves.

They had to pay to incorporate as a not-for-profit and buy directors’ insurance.  We paid for advertising.  (The Gazette carried some of the ECoB advertizing.) In the end there was nothing left.

ECoB was never able to get any traction after the election.  The turnout at the all candidate meetings was very high – but it didn’t result in people signing up to continue the good work.

ECoB used the money raised to pay for the debates and one event held at the Burlington Performing Art Centre ( A Tale of 2 Cities). We arranged for a meeting prior to the election at Tansley Woods Community Centre to try to inform potential candidates on how to run an election campaign and what the job entailed.

We had to pay for the use of the venues for some of the debates. We decided to have a videographer film the debates so that residents who could not physically come to the Ward Debate could watch them on UTube.  We had to pay for people to operate the sound systems at the debates themselves.

We had to pay to incorporate as a not for profit and buy director’s insurance.  We paid for advertising.  etc. – there was nothing left.

ECoB  folded.  An organization call BRAG – Burlington Residents’ Action Group got off the ground – which was as far as they got.

The group wasn’t able to find a common cause; leadership issues resulted in its dissolution.

BRAG was replaced by Focus Burlington, which dedicates itself to going over the budgets with a fine-tooth comb.

Focus has about a dozen, maybe a few more, men and women who share different sections of the Budget Book, with each person focusing on a different part.

They badger city hall for data; they complain – rightly so -about the paucity of data.

They communicate via email. Except for one person, the members know each other.

The difference with Focus Burlington is fundamental – other than the two founding members, no names are released.

Of those doing the hard work – and it is hard work – some fear repercussions and don’t need the hassle of getting on the wrong side of City Hall Staff.

People aren’t interested in sharing their names and BIOs, which might make people easier to identify.

Focus Burlington’s board members are Eric Stern and Stephen White.

Stern provided the Gazette with the following:

“Burlington residents and taxpayers with an interest in the city’s budget are welcome to join the Focus Burlington Budget Group. We are a group of professionals who are not looking for recognition, but are focused on ensuring good governance of the city administration by elected officials. Our membership includes retired CEOs, auditors, HR experts, enterprise risk and performance improvement specialists, engineers, and media experts.”

“Focus Burlington does not publish the names of their helpers.  Most don’t want to be known, fearing retribution from either Council or city administrative staff.

“They communicate primarily through email, and they rarely meet in person.  One member of our group has not shared their name and communicates only through an unidentifiable email address.”

Stern and the group members believe that some members of council have abdicated their responsibility to review the budget in a robust fashion and look to the Citizens for input.

On balance, Focus Burlington is doing a good job at keeping the idea that citizens have the right to participate in the affairs of the city alive – and that this amounts to more than just responding to city surveys.

Future political leaders come out of ward-based organizations.  Without these groups there is little in the way of candidates to choose from when an election takes place.

When every member of Council is returned to office one does not have a council that is responsive – you get what we have now.

By Pepper Parr

December 7th, 2025

BURLINGTON, ON

 

I was not able to cover the first part of the Standing Committee meeting that took place on Monday December 1^st; an appointment that had already been re-scheduled twice had to take place.

I was able to log in at close to 11:30 am and missed very significant parts of the debate.

I attempted to log into the city website the following day to get caught up and learned that the webcast for the Monday meeting was not available.  City communications have yet to explain why.

Here is what I missed.

The agenda item was: Next steps for a music festival in Burlington.  Jacqueline Johnson, Commissioner of Community Services made opening remarks:

Johnson: “I am pleased to offer some opening remarks for this important report. Following Council’s direction in October, our team has spent the past several weeks running a clear, transparent process to identify a provider for Burlington’s waterfront Music Festival. There has been a lot of attention to this work, understandably so, and I want to start by acknowledging the effort staff put into getting us to this point, especially with very tight timeline. I also want to take a moment to recognize the long history of the Burlington Sound of Music festival for more than 40 years. It played a meaningful role in shaping Burlington’s cultural identity, and while Council ultimately had to make a difficult decision based on financial realities before you, the festival’s contributions to our community over the many areas should be acknowledged.

“The process that followed moved very quickly. We heard from more than 3500 residents who told us what they want to see going forward, Canadian and local talent, affordability and accessibility, environmental responsibility and a festival that reflects Burlington’s character, that feedback informed our approach throughout the call for applications, previously called Expression of Interest, generated 12 submissions from a mix of national producers, not for profits and local organizations. I want to thank all applicants. There was a real interest in being a part of what comes next in Burlington, and the range of concepts showed a strong sector engagement.

“Each submission was evaluated using the city’s festival and events policy then led a detailed assessment of operational readiness, safety planning, community impact, financial sustainability and alignment with resident priorities. They did this under very tight timelines as well, and I want to acknowledge the thoroughness they brought to that work. Through the evaluation, one proposal emerged as the strongest match for both the vision and the practical needs of delivering a festival in 2026 council was clear in October that sustainability and reliability were top concerns.

“I want to speak directly to the capacity of that recommended provider.  MRG Live, is a national organization with a proven record, delivering major multi-day festivals, managing complex logistics and securing talent and sponsorship at scale. Earlier in the fall, staff anticipated returning with several options for council. As we went through the evaluation and considered timelines required for next year, we determined the more responsible way forward was to bring a single, clear recommendation .

“In our judgment, this gives Burlington the best opportunity to deliver a well planned, community focused event for 2026 so what is before you today is a recommendation that reflects community input, follows council approved policy, is grounded in the information by detailed a detailed expert review, and it provides a solid path forward for a renewed waterfront Burlington festival that we can all be proud of. So thank you, and happy to take any questions.”

Shawna Stolte, Ward 4 Councillor:  My questions, the reference of it being the waterfront musical festival, with that being in capital letters, is that the proposed potential new name for this festival?

Johnson:  No, that’s just what we’re referring to it as right now. That’s to be determined.

Stolte:   I just happened to be out in the general public over the weekend and overheard a conversation about, and I don’t know how representatives of the public, but people talking about how they understood the Sound of Music was canceled. So just that name and the brand alone, I think speaks so much. And I know that there’s some question about the name and how we could go about potentially continuing under that name, and just wondering if there’s been further conversation about the name of the Sound of Music Festival and how that could continue so the public sees it as a continued festival that is very similar to what’s been offered in the past. Myconcern is that under a new name, it could impact its success of it, as far as people thinking that it’s not the sound of music anymore.

Johnson:  It is a great point and question, and although I can say that, you know, the communication and marketing and that will be done, I believe will will still bring strong, strong support for a festival next year, it’s something that the public expects in terms of the legalities or logistics around using that name. I think that was a question that came up in committee in October, and I believe Commissioner Hurley (City Solicitor) spoke to it. I’m not sure if there’s any other information, if any discussions have gone on since that meeting and today, but I can, I can turn it over to Blake to see if he has any comments to offer.

Blake Hurley: City Solicitor: There’s been no further discussions and investigation of that aspect of it, this process that’s before you today had to play out and depending on what decision that committee and council ultimately make on this that will guide us as we how we move forward in exploring other options.

Mayor Mead Ward: Similar to Councillor Stolte’s discussion – so we’re moving?  Should Council approve this, moving in a new direction?  I guess my question is, what then happens to the Sound of Music, entity and the name? They have some outstanding obligations to vendors, as well as the city. Is the city planning a separate future report back on on those matters, as well as as the name of the festival, and could it be used for, for the new the new operator, not a new festival, but the new operator?

Johnson:  I’m not able to speak to their outstanding funds owed to another party. It would be not something that the city, as far as I know, would be involved in.  Again, I believe Commissioner Hurley spoke to that, or can speak to that a little bit more confidently, in terms of using a name.  That is something this process wasn’t  involve  in.  We were just looking to see what the interest was in the community for an organizer to run the festival for 2026.  Was there another part to your question?

Meed Ward: Are you planning to come back, or do you need a staff direction to come back to us to discuss those matters? I understand a staged approach, and today is not the day for it. I’m just asking, at what point would there be a conversation for council on those matters? And if you’re planning to come back, do you need any kind of report back direction today.

Johnson: We wouldn’t need a direct direction. We can report back in some of our information that we have coming back in Q1

Meed Ward:  Second question is, around the there’s reference to additional downtown activation. I didn’t see any specific reference to the parade, which is a historical legacy part of this. I know we didn’t ask the community about that, which is unfortunate, but I certainly know from conversations I have, it’s a really important part of the festival.

Johnson: That being contemplated as part of this festival through you chair, yeah, no, we didn’t directly ask the community, but we do know that the community really appreciates that part of the festival, and it is something we’ve already started talking to the new organization about. So that is absolutely being contemplated.

Councillor Sharman.  Really appreciate the report and the great work and short time coming up with a solution. I have two questions. The first one is, with respect to the volunteer component of the sound of music in the past, will we be inviting the same degree of volunteer support that we’ve had in the past that made it so much part of Burlington

Johnson: We would certainly encourage all of those folks that want to get involved, to or have been involved, to continue to be involved again. This is something that we will work with the organizer between now and June, and hopefully be able to report back in q1 with those details, or you’ll just see that come to life at the festival.

Sharman:  My second question might be a little more sensitive. The mayor made the statement; if we choose to approve this report,then that raises the question about:  How do we know whether we should choose to support the decision you’ve made? Is that something we would need to go into closed session to discuss this or is this a done deal?

Johnson:  Nothing is a done deal. It would be up to you if you wanted to go and dive deeper into the detail. The report is pretty thorough. There’s lot of backing to the decision and the approach that we as staff are recommending. We’re very confident that this is going to achieve what we were directed to do. Between what we heard from the survey, what we heard in terms of the values that council wanted to see, as well as our festival of events policy guidelines.

We had a group of experts come together xxx, and this was a clear path forward. There wasn’t really even too much around. You know, The decision between this and the other applicants was,very clear and very and unanimous. I strongly recommend we go forward in order to to meet timelines and to get this done. However. You know, it’s the prerogative of council if we want to dive deeper.

Sharman:  You know, it’s not my decision, it’s my colleague’s decision to see if they have any interest in going into close to discuss it. So I’m going to make the suggestion that we go to close, and we need a council vote to committee vote to go into close, and if there’s no support, then we’re clear. I’d like to move that we  go into close to discuss the details of the decision before us.

 

Chair:  If you are proceeding to close, I’d recommend that you proceed into close to receive solicitor client advice with respect to the process. And I think that will satisfy us to get us into close. Iy’s not simply enough just to talk about the decision. We need to go into close for a specific purpose. And I’ll ask you, does that satisfy your purpose?  We are going to take a vote on whether we go to close.

Counsellor Nissan: I want to know what is the goal of going into closed?  What are we trying to achieve that we don’t have in the report currently?

I think the solicitor just clarified what that is, and it’s a matter of understanding the process and how we got to the decision. I have to tell you, I don’t actually want to discuss the reason any more detail. I think it is exactly what the city solicitor suggested.

Chair: To the solicitor, are there elements of this which is related to your Do you have advice to share with us in close that that you otherwise you know you weren’t planning to give to us, but what you can give to us

Hurley:   I can provide legal advice in closed session with respect to the decision process and what decisions and what authorities need to be made and relied upon to do so, with respect to the contents of the decision and the festival groups decision itself and the process they went through that is something that would be discussed in open session going into close would be simply seeking and providing legal my legal advice with respect to any questions surrounding authorities and responsibilities for the group and for this council,

Chair: Councillor Sharman, you want to move to go into closed, yes, please.

Okay, we will take a vote all those in favor.

Council moved into Closed session

So we will move into closed session,

Council comes out of a lengthy closed session and reports that no votes were taken in closed session.  So we will continue. Are there any questions for staff?

Councilor Sharman: Thank you very much. I want to comment that it was great that we went to the close. It was very helpful. So thank you for staff for accommodating us, and that was helpful. I do have a question with respect to, you know, the depth of community involvement that we’ve always had in this event, and whether with with MRG, we might have the opportunity to engage our community members and get some of that community involved into the process.

Johnson: We would speak with the new organization around ensuring that the conversations are happening with the existing volunteers, and just invite folks that want to be involved. For something new we need recognizing the nature of the relationship with MRG around the Spencer Smith Park and other parts of the city.

Mayor Mead Ward:  I wondered if staff could just provide a little bit more color than what we got in the report around the process and who participated in reviewing the applications.

Emily Cote, Director of Recreation, Community and Culture:  We received the applications on November 21 and staff and members of the Festival and Event strategy team, which I can name: Senior Manager of Cultural services for the City of Burlington; Director of music from the Burlington Teen Tour band;  the executive director from the Burlington Performing Arts Center, Special Constable from HRPS, our financial controller from our finance department, and then the director of destination development and marketing from Burlington Economic Development and Tourism and the Executive director from the Burlington Downtown Business Association (BDBA) sat down and went through all the applications and aligned them with our festival and events policy and the criteria that’s established in there. MRG came out as a clear top applicant.

Mayor: My final question, just so the public is aware, the the reasons that the recommendation for us today has been is a Receive and File rather than an approve or pick a proponent. Can you share with the public why it is worded as a receive and file? Thanks,

Cote:  It’s worded as a receive and file for a few reasons. One is that staff have the delegated authority under the Festival and Events policy following our process, which we did in this case. The second reason is there’s also a very, very short time window to successfully put on an event for 2026. The applicant needs to get all of the items in a row. Typically, it’s about 18 months to put an event like so. So that’s also why we’ve brought it to to committee.

Mayor:  To be clear, the team that you mentioned, have made this decision, and this is a report out for information to council.

Cote: That’s correct.

Chair: I see no more questions. We have a mover for this motion.

Mayor,  I’m happy to speak to it as the mover chair, if that’s okay.

I just want to thank our staff team and all of the people who participated in this process. Council set you on a very short timeline to get this work done, to communicate with the with the public, to do the survey and to to make a decision and bring that information back to us, so that really the proponent would be set up for success for the 2026 festival. So I want to thank you for your work in a short period of time.

It’s it’s an interesting outcome, not one I saw coming, but I’m satisfied that a very thorough process was done, and the right folks have been engaged in that process. I’m really pleased to see that it’s going to remain free. That was something certainly important to me. But it’s borne out by the by the survey that we see that’s the highest, the highest response was to keep it free or nominal. But Free is better, so I think that is, that’s great, and I think there’s still opportunity to to provide input into into the festival.

Staff will report back in January with some additional information. And I’m pleased to see that the major elements that have made this such a successful event continue to be part of this application, including local, including Canadian, including making sure that there is a strong community presence as part of this, as part of this. And I know, you know, for us, we just wanted to make sure that this could go, could keep going. It’s it’s been going for many years in our community, and it is a well loved it’s really the kickoff to summer, and it’s the time my my my kids used to tell me turn Burlington change from being boring ton To Being Awesome. So more more youth and young people participating in events in our downtown is is phenomenal. And it’s actually really interesting to see the the interest 12 applications to do something, and I take a lot of comfort that staff are going to follow up with those to see if there is a both end, if there’s a way for some of these other events to take place somewhere in the city, at a different time, or, you know, at a different venue, obviously. So, so that’s really great to see people wanting to provide local programming. So overall, you know, I think this is a good direction, and it retains a music festival for our community, which they’re very interested in pursuing, and making sure that happens. So we will have a waterfront festival and invite everybody to come Father’s Day weekend like always. Thanks.

Councillor Kearns:  So this  a Receive and File. It’s not a complete decision that will come in January, February or March of 2026, first quarter. I just want to remind folks that this was a financial decision that was made, and I’ll be looking forward to seeing what the finances look like with this particular arrangement.

Some of the funding pressures were quite heavy on the previous organization, especially around security costs and city permits. I  note that this is two days and not four, which is a huge cost cut to the overall delivery of the program, and I’ll be looking forward to see which sponsors are going to be able to help assist in keeping this a free festival.

We definitely have a direction here under our policy, but this really has not been a council decision. To be really clear, policy is Council-driven, but this decision is a staff driven decision at this time to continue to do the work and the exploration, so we will see what comes back in the first quarter of 2026

Councillor Sharman:   The situation we were in over the last few years was pretty difficult and significantly costly, and we can’t forget that.  We ended up in a position middle of last year or late last year that was untenable, frankly, and with little time to fix it, staff did what we asked them to do, was step up and bring us a solution that would give us something that was sustainable, replicable, and that would evolve into something that could be, could be there for us for a long time to come.

You’ve done that in the short term. It won’t be four days, it’ll be two days, but then we’ve only got, you know, a few months to make that happen. And I recognize we were hearing back in September that, you know, that’s when grant should be applied for, and those opportunities so maybe too late.

My point here is that you made a robust and dependable recommendation out of the gate, and you did consider other organizations, many people we know, and we really appreciate all the work they’ve done in the past, and we look to have them involved in some ways as we move forward. So we’re not abandoning anybody. We’re just looking at we just put a new engine in the in the car who’s going to start off with being a smaller car, and we’re going to drive it off, and we’ll make it into something bigger in the future. And we look forward to having a significant community engagement in in that process. Thank you.

Councillor Nisan:  Could staff just confirm what we will be getting back in Q1;  my understanding is the this is a receiving file because of providers already been selected. So could you just confirm what happens in Q1 in terms of that report back?

Cote:  What’s coming back in Q1 is a detailed report of what the festival will look like in June. The details of what it even maybe what it’ll be called, what it’ll be, look what it will include. And so just some more detail that we didn’t have yet to include in this report.

Nisan: Obviously the timelines are very very tight, so I recognize this is a delegate decision by staff. And overall, although, although your staff aren’t asking necessarily, I am very happy to see that a there will be any festival at all in 2026 I think that what’s going to be a challenge period and and the fact that we were able to is is fantastic, and that the intention is for the festival to be free. I think it’s absolutely critical. We all know that a festival can be delivered at Spencer Smith Park, A A plus venue at a cost, but to do it for free is more challenging, and so that they are trying to do that, and that they’re going to figure out a way, is so important to me. I hope to see great things in the future. And I wish all the best to the selected provider. Thank you.

Chair:  The report has been moved by the mayor, and I’m going to call the vote on the following motion, and I’m going to read it out:

Receive and file for information Community Services. Report, CSS, 29- 25 regarding Waterfront Music Festival, the results of the call for the application and recommended next steps with the outcome of the Waterfront Music Festival call for application process, including the identification of MRG and live limited as the top applicant through the festivals and events strategy team in accordance with the city’s festival and events policy, and direct the director of recreation, community and culture to bring forward an information report in q1 2026, providing event details for the waterfront Music Festival scheduled at Spencer Smith Park on Father’s Day weekend, June 19 to 21st 2026, all those in favor, any opposed.

The vote was unanimous.

A lot of Council noses are still very much out of joint.